199 
AXNT20 KNHC 191020
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon May 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave continues to move away from the coast of West 
Africa. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 10N and is along
about 19W, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 15W and 22W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits to coast of western Africa near
12.5N16.5W and extends southwestward to near 09N17W. The ITCZ is 
noted W of the tropical wave, from 05N20W to 03.5N37W to the mouth
of the Amazon Basin near 00N51W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 08W and 50W, and 
south of 10N between 50W and 60W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure ridge extends from a 1017 mb high located
east of the Bahamas across Florida and into the eastern Gulf. The
pressure between this ridge and lower pressure across the northern
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds across the waters
W of 87W. Moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail in this area. Gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas of 4 ft and less are noted E of
87W. The afternoon thermal trough has exited the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight, and has moved into the eastern Bay of Campeche,
accompanied by fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. No
convection is seen in satellite imagery across the basin. Otherwise,
smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues 
to create hazy conditions over the west-central and southwestern 
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located E of the Bahamas 
extends a ridge westward into the eastern Gulf. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure in Texas 
and northern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and 
moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. A weak cold 
front will move into the N Gulf Tue night, stall, then lift north 
and dissipate by Wed night. Yet another weak front will sink into 
the NE Gulf Fri. E winds will pulse fresh to strong along and just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through
the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke 
from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to 
maintain hazy sky conditions across the west central and SW Gulf 
through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A mid to upper-level trough is across the Atlantic, north of the
Leeward Islands, and extends SW across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands to 70W. This feature has carved out a surface trough
across this same location to the N coast of Puerto Rico.
Converging low level winds to the south and east of the surface
trough are leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the Caribbean waters east of 68W this morning, with more
significant convection across the Atlantic waters. Moderate to 
fresh trades prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean east of
75W, as well as across the the Gulf of Honduras, and through the
Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these areas. Moderate
trade winds prevail elsewhere, with slight seas. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are seen across the southwest Caribbean south of
11N.

For the forecast, 1017 mb high pressure centered just E of the 
Bahamas extends a weak ridge into the NE Gulf of America, while a 
surface trough extends from the Atlantic near 28N64W to Puerto 
Rico. This pattern will yield generally moderate trades across the
basin W of 75W through Tue, except for fresh to strong E to SE 
winds pulsing during the late afternoon through night across the 
Gulf of Honduras throughout the week. Moderate to locally fresh 
trades will prevail across the basin E of 75W through Tue. The 
surface trough N of Puerto Rico will weaken and drift NE during 
the next few days, and gradually allow high pressure to strengthen
north of the basin. Look for increasing trades and building seas 
across the eastern part of the basin beginning Tue night, 
expanding westward to the central part of the basin by Wed night, 
and to most of the western Caribbean starting Thu night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Deep-layered low pressure extends from 25N61W across Puerto Rico 
and into the north-central Caribbean, and is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms S of 27N between 53W and 61W. An 
associated surface trough also persists in this same area. A 1025 
mb high centered near 29N38W extends a broad ridge across the 
Atlantic between the Azores and the surface trough along 62W-63W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across most of the 
tropical Atlantic south of 20N, where seas are 6 to 8 ft, while N
to NE winds of the same magnitude are between the W coast of 
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate 
or weaker winds are elsewhere north of 20N along with moderate 
seas. West of the surface trough, a weak ridge prevails, centered
on a 1017 mb high located near 26N72W. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail W of 63W, where seas are 2 to 4 ft and
less in the lee of the Bahamas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the deep-layered low pressure 
will gradually weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, allowing
for the surface trough to weaken and shift NE, with showers and 
thunderstorms shifting eastward ahead of it. High pressure located
to the W of the trough along 62W will support gentle winds over 
most of the area W of 63W through the period, except for moderate 
westerly winds N of 29N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will 
pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night 
for the next few days. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW to W 
winds and building seas are expected over the NW portion of the 
area and northeast of the Bahamas Wed, ahead of a cold front 
moving off the southeastern United States coast Wed night. The 
front will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu, 
then weaken as it reaches from near 31N68W to just E of the NW 
Bahamas by Sat morning.

$$
Stripling