Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 210838

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0815 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to
02N28W to 03.5N37W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
is found on either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ within 180


A cold front is entering the NW Gulf from S-central Louisiana to 
the mid-Texas coast, with high pressure ridging out ahead of it 
across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the front, and also lagging behind it 
across inland areas. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas 
are arriving behind the front. Gentle to moderate return flow is 
ahead of the front, except fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
are 1 to 3 ft across the NE half of the basin, and 3 to 6 ft in 
the SW half. 

For the forecast, the front will reach from N-central Florida to 
the W-central Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico this evening, then will 
weaken and eventually wash out as it pushes through the southern 
Gulf by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will 
follow the front through early Mon, lingering offshore of Veracruz
through Mon evening. High pressure will rebuild in the wake of 
the front, with gentle to moderate winds across the NE half of the
basin, and moderate to fresh across the SW half, pulsing to fresh
to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night. 


Broad high pressure is N of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are
pulsing S of Hispaniola and just offshore N Colombia, with fresh
winds near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft near the fresh to strong winds, and
2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thunderstorms are moving from NW Colombia to
the waters offshore far eastern Panama.

For the forecast, broad high pressure N of the basin will support
pulsing fresh to strong winds just offshore N Colombia through 
this evening and again Wed night. Similar winds S of Hispaniola 
will diminish later this morning. Otherwise moderate to locally 
fresh trades will prevail across the E Caribbean. Mainly gentle to
moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to 
fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore 
central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into 
the Caribbean N of 20N Mon night, possibly bringing a brief period
of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across 
the basin.


Ridging extends from 31N55W through 27N65W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. Another ridge extends from 31N27W through 22N40W to 18N55W.
Light to gentle winds are right under the ridges, with gentle to
moderate along the peripheries. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across most of
the basin. Between the ridges, a surface trough is analyzed from 
31N38W to 1012 mb low pressure near 27N44W to 15N60W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted N of 27N and E of 44W. Fresh to 
strong winds are near the trough N of 25N along with seas of 5 to 
7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are from the Cabo Verde Islands to
the Canary Islands offshore western Africa to 23W, with 5 to 7 ft
seas there.

For the forecast, high pressure over the basin will continue to 
prevail ahead of a cold front which will move offshore NE Florida 
this evening, reaching from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida Mon 
evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, 
then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the 
Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas will follow the front, mainly N of 27N, near gale 
near 31N. The trough is forecast to linger through the remainder 
of the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the 


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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Apr-2024 08:38:40 UTC