000
AXNT20 KNHC 172141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Mar 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure near 25N55W
will continue to support gale-force winds east of 55W through 
this evening, in the northern semicircle of the low. These winds 
are within a larger area of fresh to strong easterly winds that 
covers roughly the waters from 24N to 31N between 40W and 62W. 
These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the 
low pressure and strong high pressure located north and west of 
the low. Winds will then diminish to fresh to strong speeds 
later tonight through Tue morning. The low will move toward the 
NW over the next 24 hours, then northward through mid-week while 
weakening. This pattern will also support rough to very rough seas
east of 70W through mid-week.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from 31N75W
into central Cuba will be followed by fresh to near-gale force 
winds and rough seas the next several days. The front will reach 
from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, 
and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning. By mid-week, a low 
pressure system will develop along this front supporting near-
gale to gale force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and 
the Bahamas. Gale conditions will begin on Tue night spreading
southeast to near 29N71W, then drift east through Wed as the 
system moves east.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both Gale areas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Liberia/Sierra
Leone border near 07N11 and continues southwestward to 04N15W. 
The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 02S30W to the coast of NE Brazil 
near 02.5S42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted within 240 nm on either side of the ITCZ west of 18W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The cold front previously mentioned in this discussion has exited
the basin to the east. High pressure of 1029 mb has settled in 
over the NW Gulf of America off the coast of Louisiana near
29N91.5W. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail across the
southeast half of the basin along with 7 to 11 ft seas, with 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the northwest half of 
the basin and 4 to 7 ft seas, except 2 to 4 ft in the far NW
portion.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue 
to affect the eastern Gulf through early Tue morning as high 
pressure continues to build in the wake of a cold front that moved
out of the basin during the morning hours. Fresh to strong SE 
wind will develop over the western half of the Gulf tonight into 
Tue ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast of
Texas Wed morning. The front will reach from southern Alabama to 
Veracruz Wed night, from Cape Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu 
afternoon, and exit the basin Thu night into Fri. The front will 
be followed by fresh to strong winds and rough seas that will 
start to diminish Fri morning. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Cuba near 22N80.5W to the Gulf of
Honduras near 15.5N88W. Fresh to strong winds and 7 to 10 ft seas
are behind the front spilling in through the Yucatan Channel.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are still possible along and
just ahead of the front, although any thunderstorms have
diminished during the past few hours. A relatively weak pressure 
pattern is across the remainder of the basin and ahead of the 
front with mainly winds of moderate or weaker and 2 to 4 ft seas, 
except moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft seas offshore 
northern Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas 
will continue to follow a cold front. The front is forecast to 
reach from eastern Cuba to NE Nicaragua Tue morning before its 
tail dissipate Tue night into Wed. Building high pressure in the 
wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of 
fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward 
Passage Tue through Wed evening. In the south-central and portions
of the SW Caribbean, fresh to strong NW to E winds will prevail 
through the weekend. High pressure will build near the Bahamas 
over the weekend and trade winds will increase across the region, 
with near gale-force winds possibly developing offshore Colombia, 
and strong winds south of Hispaniola. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a strengthening low pressure. Another Gale Warning will
develop in the W Atlantic by mid-week in the vicinity of an
occluded low. Refer to the Special Features section for more 
details on both lows and associated Gale Warnings.

Aside from the gale areas, high pressure ridge extends across the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. A cold front moved
through the Canary Islands this morning, with a small portion of
the front extending from the coast of northern Africa near 25N15W
to 21N25W. Fresh to strong winds are across the waters from 13N to
25N between the coast of Africa and 35W, including through the
Cabo Verde Islands, and north of the front and east of 20W. Winds
are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere across the basin away from
the special feature areas. For seas, 12 to 20 ft seas in northerly
swell is north of 26N in the wake of the cold front and east of
25W, with 8 to 11 ft seas elsewhere north of 13N and east of 45W.
Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, gale-force NE to E winds will 
prevail in the northern semicircle of a 1007 mb low near 25N56W 
through this evening as strong high pressure NE of the low starts 
to weaken. However, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to 
very rough seas associated with the low will continue to affect 
the offshore zones E of 63W and N of 23N through Tue evening. 
Strong to near gale-force winds will precede and continue to 
follow a cold front that extends from 30N75W to Andros Island to 
western Cuba. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and 
Caicos and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from 31N60W to Puerto 
Rico Wed morning. A low pressure system is forecast to develop 
along this front Tue night, which will support the development of 
gale-force winds and very rough seas between Bermuda and the 
Bahamas Tue night through Wed. Afterward, winds and seas will 
gradually diminish across the region through Thu night. Looking 
ahead, a third strong front is forecast to come off the Florida NE
coast Thu. 

$$
Lewitsky