622 
AXNT20 KNHC 131733
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue May 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1620 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 12.5N13W, then extends southwestward to near 05N18W. 
An ITCZ continues from 05N18W across 02N35W to near Macapa in the 
State of Amapa, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is present 
south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 18W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ fro 01N to 06N
between 18W and the coast of northeastern Brazil/French Guiana.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The southwestern end of a frontal trough is causing scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Keys. A 1015
mb high pressure over the southeastern Gulf is strengthening this 
morning. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the 
south-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds and
4 to 6 ft seas are found at the west-central Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf should
steadily strengthen this afternoon through Wed then drift 
eastward towards the Florida Peninsula where it will prevail 
through the weekend. This will tighten the pressure gradient 
against building lower pressure over the far western Gulf and will
lead to fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough 
seas through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Two modest surface troughs are producing scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms over the eastern basin, and in the Gulf of 
Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional 
weather in the Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between a broad 
surface ridge near 25N and low pressure over northern Colombia is 
sustaining strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas of 9 to 11 
ft at the south-central basin. Mainly fresh ENE to E winds with 6 
to 9 ft seas are evident at the north-central and southwestern 
basin, except gentle to moderate ENE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in 
moderate NE swell near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to locally 
fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the eastern basin, 
including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft 
seas prevail at the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, high pressure N of Bermuda will continue to 
support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia 
through late Wed along with moderate to rough seas. The high 
pressure will lift N and then SE towards the central Atlantic 
subtropical waters, which will keep mainly moderate to fresh 
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean Wed night through 
Thu night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds the remainder of 
the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate to 
rough seas will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters and 
passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E 
winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from late Wed through 
Sat night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal trough curves southwestward from off the 
Georgia coast near 31N79W to just southeast of the Florida Keys. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near 
this boundary from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N 
between 74W and 80W. Farther east, a surface trough extends 
southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N57W to 
27N67W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of 
this feature. Convergent trades are coupling with a broad upper- 
level trough in the vicinity to generate scattered moderate 
convection just east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic 
Basin.

An elongated 1026 mb high near 30N37W is supporting gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 23N between 35W and
70W. To the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to S 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident near the aforementioned cold 
front north of 20N between 70W and 78W. Gentle to moderate W to SW
winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft exist off the eastern Florida coast.
For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/23N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to
9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 
rough seas to 8 ft will linger through this evening across the 
offshore waters NE of Freeport, N of 28N between 74W and 77W, 
associated with the remnants of a stationary front. As the front 
lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic tonight and Wed, 
winds will become SW behind the front and weaken. Farther south, 
pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE 
and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including across
the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean. 

$$
Stripling