000
AXNT20 KNHC 191748
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon May 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave continues to move away from the coast of West 
Africa. The low amplitude wave extends from 02N to 09N and is 
along about 22W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 20W 
and 25W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough exits to coast of western Africa near
9.5N13.5W and extends southwestward to near 05N17W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N17W to 04N20W, where it is broken by the
tropical wave. The ITCZ then redevelops at 04N26W and continues
westward to the far northern coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Aside 
from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 
10W and 52W, and south of 10N between 52W and 61W. 

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean south of 12N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure ridge extends from a 1017 mb high located 
over the Florida Big Bend into the eastern Gulf. The pressure 
between this ridge, lower pressure across northern Mexico, a 
surface trough in the SW Gulf, as well as deepening low pressure
in the central US is supporting fresh to strong SE winds across 
much of the Gulf W of 90W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are observed
from 87-90W and S of 26N, with moderate or weaker E to SE winds
elsewhere in the basin. Seas across the Gulf range from 4-7 ft to
the W of 88W, to 1-4 ft E of 88W. Some isolated showers are noted
in the central Gulf embedded in the fresh to strong SE flow with
deep-layer moisture. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires 
over southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions over 
the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of 
Campeche.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located just north of Tampa,
Florida extends a ridge westward across the northern Gulf coast. 
The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower 
pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to 
fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through 
Tue. A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf Tue night, stall,
then lift north and dissipate Wed night. Yet another weak front 
will sink into the NE Gulf Thu night into Fri. High pressure 
should prevail this coming weekend. E winds will pulse fresh to 
strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each 
afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops 
daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky conditions 
across the west central and SW Gulf through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A mid to upper-level trough is across the Atlantic, north of the
Leeward Islands, and extends SW into the E Caribbean. Converging 
low level winds to the south and east of the surface trough are 
leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters east of 68W this morning. All other convection in
the basin is associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough,
please see that section for details. Moderate to fresh trades 
prevail in the central and eastern Caribbean east of 75W as well
as in the Gulf of Honduras, with seas of 4 to 6 ft across these 
areas. Gentle to moderate trades and slight seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of the Bahamas 
extends a weak ridge across the waters north of the basin, while a
surface trough extends from the SW N Atlantic to near Puerto 
Rico. This pattern will yield generally moderate winds across the 
basin west of 75W through Tue, except for fresh to strong E to SE 
winds pulsing during the late afternoon through night near the 
Gulf of Honduras throughout the next several days. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin E of 75W 
through Tue. The surface trough north of Puerto Rico will weaken 
and drift northeast during the next few days, and gradually allow 
high pressure to strengthen north of the basin. Look for 
increasing trades and building seas across the eastern part of the
basin beginning Tue night, expanding westward to the central part
of the basin by Wed night, reaching the coast of Nicaragua by the
end of the week. Meanwhile, moderate trades and seas will prevail
in the Tropical N Atlantic, freshening by the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough axis extends from the Anegada Passage to 
near 25N60W, with a surface trough also analyzed from 28N61W to 
20N67W. The interactions between these features support widely 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in a region from 13N 
to 27N between 55-62W. Another area of scattered showers, 
associated with convergent surface winds and an upper-level 
shortwave trough along 30W, is observed from the Cabo Verde 
Islands to near 31N between 20-29W. All other convection in the 
Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave, the monsoon trough, 
and the ITCZ. Please refer to those sections for details on 
convection in the Atlantic near and south of 10N.

A 1025 mb high centered near 29N38W extends a broad ridge across 
the Atlantic between the Azores and the aforementioned surface 
trough. Recent scatterometer data indicates two areas of fresh to
strong NE winds: one between the Canary Islands and the Moroccan
coast near Agadir, and the other from 18-24N and E of 20W.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to NE winds prevail across much of
the Atlantic from 06-20N between the W coast of Africa and 58W.
The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds
prevail. Moderate seas prevail across the majority of the Atlantic
E of 70W, with slight seas analyzed to the W of 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, deep-layered low pressure extends 
from 25N60W across Puerto Rico and into the NE Caribbean, and is 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 27N 
between 55W and 62W. An associated surface trough also persists in
this same area, while high pressure is just northeast of the 
Bahamas. This middle to upper-level low pressure will gradually 
weaken through Tue as it shifts eastward, allowing for the surface
trough to weaken and shift NE, and showers and thunderstorms 
shifting eastward ahead of it. High pressure located to the west 
of the trough and east of the Bahamas will support gentle to 
moderate winds over most of the area west of the trough through 
the period, except for moderate westerly winds north of 28N due to
a passing weak frontal trough. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each 
night for the next few days. Looking ahead, fresh to locally 
strong SW to W winds and building seas are expected over the NW 
portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas Tue night and 
Wed, ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern United 
States coast Wed night. The front will reach from near 31N70W to 
the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken as it reaches from near 
31N68W to just E of the NW Bahamas by Sat morning. 

$$
Adams