000
AXNT20 KNHC 270550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between a 1023 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 28N66W, and comparatively
lower pressure in Colombia, will support strong winds in
the south central Caribbean Sea in general. The current
situation consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea
heights that are reaching 8 feet, from 11N to 13N between
70W and 72W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. The 24-hour 
forecast consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights 
ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 
75W. The 48-hour forecast consists of NE- to-E gale-force winds, 
and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 11N to 13N 
between 70W and 77W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. 

Atlantic Ocean large swell event: A cold front passes through
31N34W, to 28N40W, to 25N49W, to 26N54W, to 30N57W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold
front. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet in NW
swell, from 25N northward between 30W and 61W. Fresh W-to-SW winds
are within 120 nm on either side of the cold front from 29.5N
northward. Fresh NW winds are from 30N northward between 40W and
50W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N
northward between 20W and 70W. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 8 feet from 10N to 25N between 30W and 50W, and from 16N
southward from 50W westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to
6 feet elsewhere from 60W eastward. The 24-hour forecast consists
of sea heights that will range from 8 feet to 10 feet in NW swell,
15N northward between 35W and 51W. The 48-hour forecast consists
of sea heights that will be 8 feet high, from 13N northward
between 35W and 59W. W and 61W. The sea heights will range from 8
feet to 11 feet in NW swell from 22N northward between 35W and
50W, in 48 hours. The wave periods will range from 14 seconds to 
16 seconds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Offshore Waters Forecast, at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of Sierra Leone and
Liberia, to 03N18W 02N23W, to 01N29W. No ITCZ is present.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N southward between 12W
and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
from 05N southward from 22W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad east-to-west oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of 
Mexico. The sea heights have been ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet
from 90W westward, and from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere. Mostly
moderate to some fresh SE winds are in the central two-thirds of 
the area. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere in the Gulf of
Mexico. An exception is fresh to moderate winds that are moving
through the Straits of Florida. 

A surface ridge extending into the central Gulf from the western 
Atlantic will dominate the area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours 
through this period. A cold front entering the northwestern Gulf 
on Tue will move southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend
area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken 
and reach from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche 
Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the 
northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed morning. High pressure
building in the wake of the front will support fresh to locally 
strong easterly winds across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern 
Gulf the middle to end of the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning in the south central 
Caribbean Sea.

The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet in the southern two-
thirds of the central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from
5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere in the central Caribbean Sea, from 
Jamaica and Hispaniola southward. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 5 feet in the Windward Passage. The sea heights range 
from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Near 
gale- force to gale-force NE winds are within 150 nm of the coast 
of Colombia. Strong NE winds are within 375 nm of the coast of 
Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 80W 
eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds are within 350 nm of the coast 
of Honduras. Moderate SE winds are elsewhere in the western one- 
third of the Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly 
winds at the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds north of 
Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Tue night. 
Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras 
through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. 
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the 
Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for details about the
large swell event. The main impact will be the high sea heights
with the cold front.

Moderate to fresh SE winds are to the north and northeast of the
Bahamas. Fresh SE winds are between the Bahamas and Cuba. Some
strong SE winds are off the coast of Cuba from 21N to 22N between
75W and 77W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 20N
southward from 44W westward. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE- 
to-E winds are from the NE Caribbean Sea islands to 20N from 60W 
westward. Moderate NE winds are from 22N southward between 30W and
44W. Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from
5 feet to 7 feet, are from 25N northward from 21W eastward. The 
sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N northward between
60W and 70W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from the
Bahamas northward, and from 3 feet or less from the Bahamas 
southward.

High pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue.
A cold front is forecast to move off the US east coast on Tue 
morning, then slowly track eastward north of 26N through Fri. 
Moderate to fresh westerly winds and higher seas are anticipated 
in the vicinity of the cold front. High pressure building in the 
wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating 
fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu night. 

$$
mt/al