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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 261039

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


Atlantic Gale warning...A strong cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast later today. Low pressure will develop 
along the front northwest of the Bahamas late Wednesday into 
Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow with gale force 
winds developing by 28/1800. Seas are expected to be 10 to 15 ft
in northeast swell. The front and low pressure will drift slowly 
eastward through Friday. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High 
Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the 
following website: for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W 
to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N29W to the coast 
of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 01S 
between 09W to 22W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is 
also noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 02S between 25W to 31W. 


A cold front is sinking southward across the northern Gulf of 
Mexico. The front stretches from Apalachicola Fl westward into 
Corpus Christi TX. Along and ahead of the front, showers are seen 
on both satellite and radar within 100 nm of the front. Showers 
are also moving off the south Texas and northeast Mexican coast 
entering into the western Gulf. Scattered showers are also pushing
southward along the central Florida coast. Gentle to moderate 
north-northeast winds are observed through most of the basin. 
Ahead of the approaching cold front, winds are light to gentle out
of the south- southeast.

The cold front will reach from southwest Florida to south Texas 
late today, then sweep southeast of the area on Wednesday. Expect
moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf 
by late week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas in the 
wake of the front. The next cold front will move south into the
northwest Gulf on Saturday night. 


An inverted trough extends from the Atlantic into the northern 
Caribbean between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola and just to the east
of Jamaica from 27N72W to 17N78W. Isolated showers are continuing
across the northern and western Caribbean. Scattered to numerous 
showers are moving across and south of Hispaniola. Scattered 
showers are moving east- northeast across Puerto Rico and the 
Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades are over much of the 
eastern and central Caribbean. Strong winds south of 13N are near 
the Colombia coast and light to gentle winds are in the 
northwestern Caribbean. Mid to upper level ridging is centered 
over Central America, providing subsidence across the basin.

High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade 
winds off Colombia into mid week. The winds will diminish mid to 
late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front. 
The front will move into the northwest Caribbean on Wednesday, 
then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras 
through the latter part of the week. 


In the far western portion of the discussion area, a pre-frontal 
trough extends just off the coast of Florida and the Straits of 
Florida from 31N78W to 24N82W. Along this trough, a line of 
thunderstorms is moving eastward from 31N-28N and west of 76W. 
Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N36W 
and stretches southwest to 27N49W. From 27N49W, a stationary front
stretches west to 29N70W. Along the cold front and the eastern 
portion of the stationary front, showers are within 60 nm. An 
inverted trough extends from from 27N72W to 17N78W along the 
eastern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are to the east of 
the trough from 31N-22N between 59W- 66W. Otherwise, surface 
riding is seen across the basin. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1006 
mb low is located over the Canary Islands with a dying occlusion 
extending east of the low into southern Morocco. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 50 nm of the low. 

A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast 
later today with gale force winds developing by 28/1800.  Winds 
and seas diminish later in the week as the front and low pressure 
drift slowly eastward followed by high pressure building north of 
the Bahamas by Sat night.

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