AXNT20 KNHC 191114
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
614 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A 1007 mb low pressure center near 19N58W continues to show signs
of organization. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection
is from 15N-22N between 52W-59W. Additional development is
expected and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form later today or Wed while the system moves northwestward and
then northward over the open Atlantic. The low is forecast to
interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development
is unlikely after that time. The chance of tropical cyclone
formation within 48 hours is high. This system is forecast to
produce winds to gale force by late tonight or early Wed morning
when the low is moving northward in the general vicinity of
23N60W. See High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS/WMO headers NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for more information.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 12N southward,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01N-06N between 35W-43W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70/71W from 20N southward,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are within 90 nm on either
side of the tropical wave axis from 12N-19N.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Sierra Leone
near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 03N21W to
02N34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02S-03N
between 21W-34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 03N-08N between 11W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted from 05N-10N between 23W-28W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Two 1015 mb surface highs are over the western Gulf, near 24N93W
and near 27N94W, respectively. Weak surface ridging covers most
of the Gulf, along with relatively dry air. Weak high pressure
over the western Gulf will shift eastward through tonight. Fresh
SE return flow will develop off the Texas coast Wed through Thu. A
strong cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Fri
afternoon, resulting in fresh to strong northerly winds behind it.
The front will rapidly move across the basin, nearly exiting by
late Sat night.
A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N70W
to the Windward Passage near 19N75W. A surface trough continues
to the eastern coast of Jamaica to 15N78W to 10N81W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 19N-22N between 70W-77W in parts of
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Broken multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are to the west and northwest of the
surface trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate N winds to
the west of the surface trough over the western Caribbean, and
fresh along the coast of Nicaragua. The trough will dissipate
tonight. The tropical wave along 71W will weaken through tonight
and early Wed.
See the Special Features section above for information on the low
pressure near 19N58W, which has a high chance of tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.
A surface trough extends from 32N70W to near Nassau Bahamas with
isolated showers possible east of the trough axis. A cold front
passes through 32N61W to 28N65W. The front becomes stationary from
28N65W to 22N70W to the Windward Passage near 19N75W. Scattered
moderate convection is near the cold front. Isolated moderate
convection is near the stationary front from 19N-22N between 70W-
77W in parts of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Surface high
pressure ridging covers the Atlantic elsewhere east of 55W,
anchored by a 1030 mb high near 33N38W. Trade winds of 20-25 kt
cover the Atlantic from 15N-25N between 20W-45W.
Seas west of the W Atlantic stationary front, N and NE of the
Bahamas, will continue to gradually subside through early this
evening. A trough behind the stationary front will generate into
a cold front and sweep across the rest of the western and central
forecast waters this afternoon through Wed night. Fresh to strong
west to northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind
this front. High pressure will build across the northern waters
Thu through Sat. Yet another cold front may move off the
northeast Florida coast late Sat night. Fresh to strong southwest
winds are forecast to develop over the far northwest waters
beginning on Sat afternoon.