AXNT20 KNHC 220518
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are near the N
coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 74W-76W. Seas are 9-14 ft.
After 12Z Monday morning, winds will subside below gale force.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W from 03N-16N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N-09N between
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 06N-21N. This
wave is completely embedded within the middle of a strong outbreak
of Saharan dust, and no convection is present.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 04N-19N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 03N-08N between
52W-58W, including over portions of Suriname and French Guiana.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers around
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 03N-17N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean, Costa Rica, and Panama, S of 10N.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 09N20W to 07N34W. The ITCZ begins near 07N34W to 06N44W
to 07N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered showers are seen within 180 nm S of the
ITCZ between 36W-45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
29N. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 16N-19N between 92W-95W.
In the upper levels, a small upper level low centered over the SE
Gulf near 25N86W is enhancing convection. Scattered moderate
convection is from 25N-27N between 87W-89W. Isolated moderate
convection is over the E Gulf E of 85W. Similar convection is over
the central Gulf from 24N-26N between 90W-93W.
A ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico will retreat E Tuesday
night and allow a cold front to move into the northern Gulf. The
front will then stall and weaken Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue across most of the basin, except for fresh
winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan peninsula at night.
A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. Two tropical
waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above.
Isolated moderate convection is over Haiti, and N of Jamaica, from
18N-20N between 72W-79W. Similar convection is over the NW
Caribbean from 20N-22N between 82W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over the Gulf of Honduras. Further more,
scattered showers are advecting over the Windward Islands S of S
of 14N and E of 65W.
High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean Sea through next week. Winds
along the coast of Colombia will reach gale force tonight. Fresh
easterly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and
Three tropical waves are over the Atlantic. See above.
A surface trough is over the central Bahamas from 27N75W to
21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-26N between
74W-77W. More scattered showers are over the W Atlantic from
26N-30N between 72W-80W. A 1021 mb high is over the W Atlantic
near 29N62W. A 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
27N49W. A 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 35N20W.
Over the W Atlantic, the central Bahamas surface trough will
each the waters between the Bahamas and Florida late Monday. A
ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds across the region through Tuesday night. The ridge
will start retreating eastward on Tuesday night, enabling a
trough to move over the NW waters from Florida Wednesday morning.
Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
each night through the middle of next week.
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