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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251711

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Sep 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 14N between 34W and 40W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 12N southward, 
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 180 
nm of the wave north of 09N. 


The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near 
11N16W to 11N34W. The ITCZ continues west of the wave is from 
09N42W to 07N50W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 200
nm of the monsoon trough.  


A stationary front stretches from NW Florida to 26N90W. The 
basin is mostly devoid of shower activity except south of 22N in 
the Bay of Campeche BETWEEN 91W-95W. Moderate southerly winds are 
ahead of the front in the NE Gulf, and moderate NW winds in the 
northern Gulf behind the front. Moderate to fresh winds are also 
noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern portion of
the Bay of Campeche. Light winds continue in the southeast and 
central Gulf.

A stationary front extending from NW Florida to 26N90W is 
expected to weaken and dissipate in the NE Gulf today. Southerly 
winds ahead of the front will diminish this morning as the front 
weakens. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon 
evening. Gale force winds are possible west of the front near 
Veracruz on Tue. 


A trough extends across the Greater Antilles from Hispaniola to 
Cuba, remnants of an Atlantic cold front. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted in the western Caribbean from
13N to 09N between 74W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is 
north of the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean
through Tue, becoming fresh to strong near the coast of Colombia 
and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend. Gentle to moderate 
winds expected elsewhere across the area, except moderate to fresh
ESE winds in the Gulf of Honduras over the weekend. 


A stationary front stretches across the Atlantic from 30N50W to 
25N57W, becoming a surface trough from 25N57W to 19N76W, across 
the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Scattered showers are noted 
about 80 nm south of the front. A 1024 mb high pressure centered 
near 34N62W, with a ridge across the northern waters between the 
stationary front and southeast U.S. coast. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from the Florida Straits north
across the northern Bahamas to 31N and west of 75W-79W. High 
pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic, with few showers except 
associated with tropical waves or the convergence zone. 

Moderate to fresh ESE winds are expected N of 22N through Sat 
night as a surface trough moves westward north of the Greater 
Antilles this weekend before dissipating on Mon. Moderate return 
flow will prevail afterwards E of the Bahamas through Tue night.