AXNT20 KNHC 261039
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Atlantic Gale warning...A strong cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast later today. Low pressure will develop
along the front northwest of the Bahamas late Wednesday into
Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow with gale force
winds developing by 28/1800. Seas are expected to be 10 to 15 ft
in northeast swell. The front and low pressure will drift slowly
eastward through Friday. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High
Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N29W to the coast
of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 01S
between 09W to 22W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is
also noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 02S between 25W to 31W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front is sinking southward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. The front stretches from Apalachicola Fl westward into
Corpus Christi TX. Along and ahead of the front, showers are seen
on both satellite and radar within 100 nm of the front. Showers
are also moving off the south Texas and northeast Mexican coast
entering into the western Gulf. Scattered showers are also pushing
southward along the central Florida coast. Gentle to moderate
north-northeast winds are observed through most of the basin.
Ahead of the approaching cold front, winds are light to gentle out
of the south- southeast.
The cold front will reach from southwest Florida to south Texas
late today, then sweep southeast of the area on Wednesday. Expect
moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf
by late week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas in the
wake of the front. The next cold front will move south into the
northwest Gulf on Saturday night.
An inverted trough extends from the Atlantic into the northern
Caribbean between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola and just to the east
of Jamaica from 27N72W to 17N78W. Isolated showers are continuing
across the northern and western Caribbean. Scattered to numerous
showers are moving across and south of Hispaniola. Scattered
showers are moving east- northeast across Puerto Rico and the
Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades are over much of the
eastern and central Caribbean. Strong winds south of 13N are near
the Colombia coast and light to gentle winds are in the
northwestern Caribbean. Mid to upper level ridging is centered
over Central America, providing subsidence across the basin.
High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade
winds off Colombia into mid week. The winds will diminish mid to
late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front.
The front will move into the northwest Caribbean on Wednesday,
then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras
through the latter part of the week.
In the far western portion of the discussion area, a pre-frontal
trough extends just off the coast of Florida and the Straits of
Florida from 31N78W to 24N82W. Along this trough, a line of
thunderstorms is moving eastward from 31N-28N and west of 76W.
Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N36W
and stretches southwest to 27N49W. From 27N49W, a stationary front
stretches west to 29N70W. Along the cold front and the eastern
portion of the stationary front, showers are within 60 nm. An
inverted trough extends from from 27N72W to 17N78W along the
eastern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are to the east of
the trough from 31N-22N between 59W- 66W. Otherwise, surface
riding is seen across the basin. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1006
mb low is located over the Canary Islands with a dying occlusion
extending east of the low into southern Morocco. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 50 nm of the low.
A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast
later today with gale force winds developing by 28/1800. Winds
and seas diminish later in the week as the front and low pressure
drift slowly eastward followed by high pressure building north of
the Bahamas by Sat night.
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