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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 230545

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.


An tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is south of 20N along 
68W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery 
shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave environment. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted inland south of 12N, 
affecting northern Venezuela.


The monsoon trough is primarily inland over central Africa, with 
scatterometer data showing the eastern extent of the ITCZ near 
09N19W, continuing westward across the Atlantic to the coast of 
South America near 11N67W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is within 45 nm of the axis between 19W-45W.


A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 
23N80W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N89W, than a warm 
front to a 1015 mb low near 27N96W. Scattered moderate showers 
are north of 27N west of 90W. Scatterometer data shows moderate 
to locally fresh winds north of front. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail over the remainder of the basin.

Expect high pressure W of the front to weaken through early Thu 
as the front dissipates. A low will develop over Texas Wed 
night, then drag a new cold front across the Gulf as it moves to 
the SE United States by Thu night.


A tropical wave is within the basin. See the section above for 

The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N 
from Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted along the trough axis.

Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse in the Windward 
Passage overnight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will 
continue through early Wed, then diminish by Thu night. A 
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean will move across 
the basin through Wed and weaken. Gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds will follow the wave.


A cold front extends from 32N56W to 25N69W, becoming stationary 
at that point across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida near 
23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the 
cold front, and isolated showers are along the stationary front. 
A surface trough is analyzed from 20N50W to 13N53W, and water 
vapor imagery shows broad upper level diffluence is enhancing 
convection east of the surface trough. Surface ridging prevails 
across the remainder of the basin, with generally fair weather.

Expect the W Atlantic front to weaken through Wed, with winds 
and seas gradually diminishing across the western Atlantic.. 

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