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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 242354
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 21N from 02N to 19N, moving W
at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection associated to this wave is
noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 24W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 04N to 19N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N 
between 50W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean near 
65W, and extends from Venezuela northward toward Puerto Rico, 
moving W at 20 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave's axis. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W from Cuba to Panama. 
Scattered showers with embedded tstms are noted across much of
Cuba and the surrounding waters. This wave will move across 
western Cuba tonight into Mon, and will continue to enhance 
convection over the island.

Another tropical wave is near 91W, and extends from the SW Gulf
into the eastern north Pacific region. This wave is currently 
generating scattered showers and tstms over portions of southern
Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 16N16W to 
07N21W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 04N40W to the
coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Outside of the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 02N to 07N between 25W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is centered near 21N98W. A large area of 
showers and tstms is within about 270 nm NE semicircle of the low 
center, covering mainly the Gulf waters from 21N-26N between 93W- 
97W. The low will drift westward into Mexico while weakening 
inland by Tue. This system will continue to enhance convection 
across the western Gulf, and likely across the states of 
Tamaulipas and Veracruz in Mexico on Mon, as well as over southern
Texas. 

A 1019 mb high is over the eastern Gulf near 27N85W with a ridge
extending westward toward the coast of Texas. The ridge will
prevail over the northern Gulf waters through Tue, supporting 
moderate to fresh SE return flow over the northwestern Gulf. A 
trough moving west off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night will further enhance overnight winds over much of the 
southwestern Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A series of tropical waves will move westward across the tropical
north Atlantic and Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week.
Currently, two tropical waves are propagating across the basin, 
one moving across the western Caribbean, and another tropical 
wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical 
Waves section for more details. Expect increasing showers and 
isolated thunderstorms in association with the passage of these 
tropical waves.

Fresh to strong winds are noted across the central and eastern 
Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to 
moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Sea heights of near 11 ft are
seen over the south-central Caribbean based on altimeter data.
Winds are forecast to reach near gale force off Colombia at 
night. Little change is expected through the middle of the week. 
Areal coverage of fresh to strong trades will decrease afterwards 
as high pressure north of the area weakens. Seas are forecast to 
build to 11-13 ft over the south-central Caribbean by early Mon. 
Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds the next 
couple of nights in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 31N54W extends a ridge 
westward across the forecast area. Fresh to strong trade are noted
E of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W. Altimeter data indicate 
sea heights of near 10 ft within this area of winds. This high 
pressure will remain nearly stationary through Tue while 
weakening. As result, the pressure gradient will loosen with 
diminishing winds and subsiding seas E of the Lesser Antilles by 
Tue. Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong the
next several nights off Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AL/GR


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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Jun-2018 23:55:15 UTC