000
AXNT20 KNHC 061718
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Nov 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: A large and long-period NW swell event 
is propagating across the north-central Atlantic waters, with 
seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of 28N between 43W 
and 55W. Seas are currently peaking near 15 ft along 31N. This
swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast region,
particularly N of 25N between 35W and 55W through Fri before 
subsiding below 12 ft. Mariners should use extreme caution over 
these waters, depending on vessel type and cargo. Looking ahead, 
additional pulses of NW swell are expected to reach the waters E 
of 55W by Fri night, building seas to 12-13 ft N of 30N between
40W and 50W. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues westward to near 06N30W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N30W to 05N45W to near the Suriname/Guyana border. 
Scattered moderate convection can be found from 05N to 08N 
between 12W and 15W, and within about 120 nm N of the Monsoon 
Trough/ITCZ between 14W and 32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the Big Bend of Florida to near
26N91W. As of 1500 UTC, a weak 1018 mb low is added to the 
surface map near 25N91W based on visible satellite imagery. A 
surface trough extends from the low center to the central Bay of 
Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the low 
while abundant cloudiness is noted over the eastern Gulf. This 
weather pattern is the result of short-wave trough moving eastward
across the western Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf is under the 
influence of a broad surface ridge that is supporting moderate or 
weaker winds with slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are 
expected over the central and north-central Gulf, east of the 
northern trough axis, through late tonight as the trough approaches
the Texas coast. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds will 
then develop over the western Gulf Fri afternoon and continue 
into Sat as a complex low pressure system moves over the south- 
central U.S. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf on Sun and progress southeastward through the 
basin into early next week. Widespread strong N to NE winds and 
rough seas can be expected behind the front, and gale force winds 
and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz by early
Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data provide observations of moderate to
fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean while mainly 
gentle to moderate winds are observed across the remainder of the
basin. Slight to moderate seas are within these winds. A weak 
surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 
63W/64W. A modest inverted-V pattern is associated with this 
trough based on visible satellite pictures. Low-topped trade wind 
showers dominate most of the basin. A cluster of moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Caribbean N of 
Panama, affecting mainly the waters from 10N to 12N between 78W 
and 80W. 

For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas will 
prevail over the Caribbean through Fri night, with winds pulsing 
to fresh speeds in the south-central basin and offshore of 
southern Hispaniola. Winds will freshen over the central and 
eastern Caribbean Fri night into early next week as a surface 
trough moves westward through the basin, and high pressure builds 
to the north. Elsewhere, rough seas in N swell are expected over 
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight. A new E to
SE swell will support rough seas through the Atlantic Passages 
this weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, a strong cold 
front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early next 
week, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE winds and building 
seas in the wake of the front. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a NW
swell event that is impacting the NE waters with rough seas. 

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N38W, and continues
SW to near 28N50W where it transitions to a stationary front that
extends across the central Bahamas to near the coast of central
Cuba. A band of mainly low clouds, with embedded showers is related
to the front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side 
of the front based on recent satellite derived wind data. Rough 
seas in NW swell are propagating mainly across the waters N of 25N
and E of 65W. A belt of moderate to fresh trades covers the tropical
Atlantic along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Farther E, high pressure
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic E of the above mentioned
frontal boundary, with a 1023 mb high pressure located just W of 
the Madeira Islands. Another high pressure center of 1023 mb is
anaylzed near 25N31W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell will occur 
over the waters east of 65W today, and will expand southeastward 
to the waters north of 20N by tonight. A new NW swell associated 
with a storm system passing north of the area will reinforce rough
seas east of 65W Fri morning through Sat morning. Moderate or 
weaker winds are expected over the waters through much of Fri, 
with occasionally fresh E winds developing south of 25N Fri night.
Looking ahead, moderate to fresh S to SW winds may develop 
offshore of Florida late this weekend ahead of a cold front moving
through the southeastern U.S. The cold front will push off the 
coast early next week and progress southeastward into the central 
Atlantic, leading to fresh to strong winds and building seas behind
the front. 

$$
GR