307 
AXNT20 KNHC 190945
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N18W, then run south-
southwestward to 06N20W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward 
from 06N20W to 00N35W. Scattered moderate convection is evident 
up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ, and south of the 
monsoon trough to 03N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong ridge of high pressure reaches southwestward from 
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 
ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong E to SE 
winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, 
including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse across 
portions of the SW Gulf as a trough moves NW off the Yucatan 
Peninsula each afternoon and evening into Mon. Fresh to strong E 
winds will develop in the Florida Straits today and these winds 
along with rough seas will prevail into early next week as a tight
pressure gradient between high pressure near the mid-Atlantic and
lower pressure over Texas exists.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The tail of a weak surface trough extends through the Virgin
Islands, but associated convection has diminished overnight. A
trade-wind regime dominates the basin, with the tight pressure
gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low
pressure over northern Colombia sustaining strong NE to E winds
over much of the central and western Caribbean. Seas of 6 to 8 ft
prevail over these waters, except 8 to 11 ft offshore Colombia,
where winds have pulsed to near gale-force overnight. In the
eastern basin, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail, with seas
of 4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will 
support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western 
Caribbean through early next week before diminishing through the 
middle of next week. Near- gale force winds will pulse off 
Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. 
Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low pressure is noted near 27N56W, with a stationary
front extending northward from it between 31N. SW of the low, a
trough extends through the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near and within 120 nm E of these features, N
of 25N. W of the features, strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
prevail for waters E of 75W and S of 25N. For the remainder of the
basin, relatively uniform moderate to fresh NE to E trades
dominate, with seas of 6 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the A tight pressure gradient
between the aforementioned low pressure and trough, and high 
pressure centered NW of Bermuda will support fresh to strong NE to
E winds and rough seas through the weekend from the Bahamas to 
the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 
70W early next week, but closer to the trough, the strong winds 
and rough seas could prevail. 

$$
Konarik