888 
AXNT20 KNHC 250439
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W and continues southwestward to 02N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 07N and east of 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...
 
A weak high pressure positioned over the NE Gulf waters supports
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 24N and
between 89W and 95W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the SE Gulf,
including the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters the remainder
of the week into the upcoming weekend supporting gentle to moderate
E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds over the east and central Bay of Campeche through 
Tue night due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming 
off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh speeds are 
forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period due to 
prevalent high pressure NE of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The combination of a surface trough analyzed in the eastern 
Caribbean and divergence aloft result in widespread cloudiness and
scattered showers over the area. A few showers are also noted
across the southern coast of central and eastern Cuba. Generally
dry conditions are found in the rest of the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure in the NW
Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia support fresh to
locally strong NE-E winds off NW Colombia, Windward Passage and
lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with the
Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong trade winds
offshore Colombia at night into the weekend. At the same time,
pulsing moderate to locally fresh NE winds are expected in the
Windward Passage, and south of Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early
next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N58W to the Mona Passage and
another surface trough is analyzed from 26N57W to the Leeward
Islands. Scattered showers are occurring to the east of these
boundaries. The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge in
the NW Atlantic and lower pressures associated with the 
aforementioned boundaries support fresh to locally strong NE-E 
winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of a 
line from 31N59W to NE Hispaniola. This was confirmed by a recent 
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an
expansive 1029 mb high pressure centered a few hundred miles
southwest of the Azores. Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and
seas of 7-10 ft are noted east of 45W and north of 14N. The ridge
also forces moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N
and between the Lesser Antilles and 45W. Seas in the area
described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are found in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between 
the aforementioned trough and high pressure of 1027 mb located 
over the Mid- Atlantic States offshore waters is leading to fresh 
to locally strong NE winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and
70W. These winds and seas will continue through Fri as the trough
remains nearly stationary. Winds should diminish by the weekend 
as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a cold front may 
move southward, between Florida and 65W, late Sunday into Monday 
followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. 

$$
Delgado