000
AXNT20 KNHC 230831
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of area combined with 
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force 
offshore of Colombia tonight and Mon night. Seas will build to 14
ft with the strongest winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa 
near 11N15W and continues to 03N11W. The ITCZ extends from 03N11W
to 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 13W and 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging dominates the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high 
centered over the NE Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed just off 
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 4-6 ft, off the west and NW coast of the Yucatan. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 2 ft or less, are in the vicinity of the
high pressure. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft,
prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail over the Gulf, 
supporting moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the 
western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the 
eastern basin into early this week. A surface trough will develop 
over the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche 
nightly through early this week, supporting pulses of fresh to 
strong winds over adjacent waters. The next cold front may enter 
the northern basin late Mon, but will likely dissipate as it moves
into the central and eastern Gulf through Tue night. High 
pressure building over the northeastern Gulf in the wake of the 
front will support moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas 
across the northwest Gulf by Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer
to the Special Features section above for more information.

Outside of the gale area, fresh to near- gale winds prevail over
the south central Caribbean, with seas in the 7-10 ft range. Fresh
to strong winds are elsewhere S of 15N and E of 80W, with seas in
the 5-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are
elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 2-4 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of 
Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of 
Colombia tonight and Mon night. Fresh to occasionally strong NE 
winds will pulse in the Windward Passage into early this week. 
Fresh to strong SE winds will extend across the Gulf of Honduras 
tonight through the middle of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends over the central Atlantic waters from 30N55W to
24N78W. Moderate to locally rough seas are west of the trough to 
near 65W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere 
W of 50W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion 
waters. Fresh to strong winds, and rough to very rough seas, are N
of 15N and E of 28W. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and 
moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build over the 
western Atlantic, supporting gentle breezes and slight to moderate
seas north of 22N into early this week. The area of high pressure
will shift eastward Mon enabling a weak cold front to move off 
the northeast Florida coast Mon night. Fresh to strong winds may 
pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through mid week. 
Another front may move into waters between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda Wed. 

$$
AL