518 
AXNT20 KNHC 031558
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat May 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends south-southwestward to 
06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to near the coast of Brazil 
at 02N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N-07N east of 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front has entered the Gulf extending from
Louisiana near 30N93W to near the US-Texas border near 26N98W. A 
pre-frontal trough extends ahead of the front from near the mouth
of the Mississippi River to the Mexican coast near 25N98W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 85W-95W and scattered
moderate with isolated strong convection is also noted from 
23N-26N west of 94W. Strong to gale-force gusts and large seas may
be present near these thunderstorms. Elsewhere, winds are gentle 
to moderate with seas 2-5 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge over the NE Gulf will shift east of 
the basin by early this afternoon in response to a cold front that
is currently moving through the western Gulf. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms ahead of the front are further aided by a pre- 
frontal trough that extends from the western Florida panhandle to 
28N90W and to 27N95W, and by another trough that extends from 
offshore South Texas to NE Mexico. Otherwise, moderate to fresh 
east to southeast winds are south of 26N, and gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds 
north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche at 
night through early next week in association with a diurnal 
trough, while mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and 
moderate seas are expected across the Straits of Florida through 
Wed. The cold front will move through the northern Gulf today and 
tonight and to east of the basin on Mon. High pressure will then 
build southward across the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to 
fresh easterly winds over most of the forecast zones early next 
week, except gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf, increasing to 
fresh to strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the pressure
gradient tightens. Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf by 
early Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure over the W Atlantic combined with a 1009 mb 
Colombian low is supporting fresh NE winds through the Windward 
Passage, in the lee of central Cuba, and south of the Dominican 
Republic this morning. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate.
Seas are 2-5 ft across the Caribbean today. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted over the waters from E Cuba and 
Jamaica to Hispaniola to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, as an
upper-level low between the Greater Antilles and Bermuda is
enhancing shower activity. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted over waters near the Windward Islands and Trinidad and
Tobago.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse 
north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night and Wed
night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of the
eastern Caribbean this weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate 
trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the basin 
into early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1013 mb low is centered near 23N51W with a trough
extending to 18N58W, which is supported by a co-located upper-
level trough. Scattered moderate convection extends from 20N-27N
between 40W-48W. Winds in the low's N semicircle are moderate to
fresh with seas 6-7 ft within 300 NM of the center. Elsewhere, a 
weak pressure gradient between ridging across the Bermuda and 
Azores Highs north to the area to lower pressure over the ITCZ is
only producing gentle to moderate trades across the tropical N 
Atlantic. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed wind waves and N swell east of
45W and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between a stationary 
front that extends from 31N53W to 27N57W and high pressure west of
Bermuda supports fresh to locally strong NE winds and locally 
rough seas west of the front to near 59W. These conditions will 
gradually shift westward going into early next week as the front 
weakens to a trough that drifts westward. Looking ahead, a weak 
cold front may approach then stall near the southeastern U.S. 
coast Sun through Mon, then lift back north as warm front around 
mid-week.

$$ 
Landsea