000
AXNT20 KNHC 082222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri May 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning: Cyclonic winds at times to gale-force
with severe gusts are forecast in the Irving High Seas Forecast
zone until 09/0000 UTC. Rough to very rough seas may accompany 
this system, anchored by a 1005 mb occluded low centered near 
33N28W. Fresh to strong W winds and seas 8 ft or more extend
southward to 28N between 25W-35W. For more details, refer to the 
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and extends southwestward to 04N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N28W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is ongoing from 02N-08N east of 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N-02N between 38W-43W and from 05N-09N
between 46W-50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 2100 UTC, a dissipated stationary front extends from the
Florida panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted north of 25N west of 90W. A
pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from 28N87W to the Florida Big
Bend near 29N83W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
north of 28N east of 87W. Strong to gale force gusts and large 
steep waves are possible in the vicinity of these thunderstorms. 
Away from the deep convection, winds across the Gulf are gentle to
moderate with seas 2-5 ft.

For the forecast, a frontal boundary located over the northern 
Gulf will continue to dissipate tonight. A cold front is currently
reaching the NW Gulf. This system will begin to move across the 
western Gulf on Fri, with a low developing along the front near SE
Louisiana. The low will meander over the NE Gulf through Sun 
while the front will move eastward across the western half of the 
basin. By Mon, the low is forecast to move northward and the front
will continue to move across the eastern Gulf. A band of showers 
and thunderstorm could be associated with the front. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in 
the wake of the front through Sat night. Smoke from agricultural 
fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in parts 
of the Gulf region. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A weak north-south pressure gradient is causing only gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean this afternoon. Seas are 2-4
ft. No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon
over the Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong east to 
southeast winds are expected just N of Honduras at night through 
Sat night. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas 
are forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri, 
including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Expect increasing 
winds and building seas, mainly over the south-central Caribbean, 
including off Colombia this upcoming weekend as the Atlantic high 
pressure builds westward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above for details about a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic
through 0000 UTC on the 9th.

A surface trough along 60W from 17N-24N is interacting with an
upper-level trough to produce scattered moderate convection from
19N-25N between 55W-60W. Another trough is along 67W north of 24N
with a weak 1015 mb low centered at 26N67W. A moderate pressure
gradient between these two troughs and a 1033 mb Bermuda-Azores
High at 41N47W is causing fresh to strong E to NE winds north of
20N between 45W-65W and seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds across the
tropical N Atlantic are gentle to moderate with seas 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 
1015 mb low pressure centered near 26.5N67W and high pressure of 
1034 mb located over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to 
locally strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas NE of the 
low center. These marine conditions will continue to affect the NE
waters tonight before diminishing by Fri. The low pressure will 
meander near 27N between 65W and 70W through Fri, and open up into
a trough by Sat morning. Then, the Atlantic high pressure will 
build westward toward the Bahamas this upcoming weekend. weekend. 

$$
Landsea