000
AXNT20 KNHC 121700
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon May 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast and 
along the border between Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W and 
continues southwestward to 06N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N17.5W to 02.5N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is present south of 07.5N 
between 02W and 54W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends across the Florida Panhandle from near
Tallahassee southward to near 26N84W then S-SW through the Yucatan
Channel and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Clusters of scattered 
showers and thunderstorms were ahead of the front earlier this
morning, but have shifted eastward across south and central
Florida in recent hours and into the adjacent Atlantic waters.
Broken clouds and scattered showers prevail across the Gulf waters
between the front and the west coasts of Florida and Cuba. The 
front eventually spirals into a deep layered 1010 mb surface low 
over western Mississippi. A surface trough extends from that low 
pressure southward across southeast Louisiana then turns westward 
across the adjacent coastal waters and into the central Texas 
coast. Scattered showers are along and within 75 nm ahead of the 
trough across the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal 
waters. A narrow band of moderate to locally fresh SW winds
prevails to the SE of this trough, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Light
anticyclonic winds have begun to develop across the south central
and southwest Gulf, behind the front. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the Gulf 
waters.

For the forecast, the front across the eastern Gulf will drift 
eastward today before exiting the basin on Tue. Scattered 
thunderstorms are expected along and east of the front today, with 
gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building seas possible near 
convection. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh W winds are 
expected across the northern Gulf through early Tue as a trough 
moves eastward over the region. Otherwise, high pressure will 
build over the basin this week. A strengthening pressure gradient 
between deepening low pressure in the central United States and 
the aforementioned high will support fresh to locally strong S to 
SE winds and rough seas offshore of Texas and Mexico Tue through 
late week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds in 
the central Caribbean, with winds strongest winds to near 30 kt
offshore of Colombia. Seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate 
to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean where seas are 4 to 6 ft. 
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean E of 85W,
while a late season cold front has become stationary through the 
Yucatan Channel southward to the just off of the coast of Belize 
and into the interior Gulf of Honduras. A cluster of moderate to 
strong thunderstorms is east of the front and across the Gulf of 
Honduras, south of 18.5N between 83W and 86.5W, while smaller
isolated clusters are elsewhere ahead of the front northward to 
western Cuba. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are west of the 
front producing seas of 4 to 5 ft. Skies are fair to partly cloudy
across most of the remainder of the Caribbean, except for
scattered showers moving across the Windward Islands and into the
basin.

For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong E winds will occur 
over the central Caribbean through Tue afternoon as a tight 
pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high 
pressure in the west central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near-
gale-force through the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of 
northwestern Colombia at night. Rough seas will accompany these 
winds, with localized very rough seas occurring near and to the 
west of the strongest winds. Winds and seas are expected to 
diminish midweek. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will 
pulse through late this week in the eastern Caribbean, supporting 
rough seas through the Atlantic passages into the eastern basin. 
Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to strong E winds will develop in the
Gulf of Honduras by midweek. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough just east of the Windward Islands is analyzed 
from 12N61W to 16N58W, and is acting to trigger scattered showers
and thunderstorms east of the trough to 55W. in an area from 
14-17N between 52-56W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates much of
the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a 1027 mb high 
centered near 32N41W, and a second high of 1029 mb near 35N67W.
These highs are separated by an old frontal band extending through
31N60W to 27N67W. Scattered showers prevail on the eastern side of
this band. South of this broad ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E
trade winds prevail across the Atlantic south of 25N and east of
70W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft south of 20N and 4 to 5 ft between
20N and 25N. To the west of 70W moderate to fresh SE to S-Se winds
prevail into the Atlantic coastal waters. Bands of moderate to
strong thunderstorms occurring well ahead of the Gulf cold front
have shifted across Florida and the Straits of Florida this
morning and are now across the Atlantic waters west of 76W, from
the NW Bahamas northward. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these waters.


For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 
rough seas will occur offshore of Florida today into Tue afternoon
as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between a cold 
front in the eastern Gulf of America and high pressure in the 
central Atlantic. Periods of near-gale force winds will be 
possible offshore of northern Florida tonight. The cold front will
move into the western Atlantic on Tue, and winds will turn to the
W behind the front and weaken, before the front lifts 
northeastward out of the region on Wed. Farther south, pulsing 
fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and evening 
offshore of northern Hispaniola through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate 
to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE 
swell will prevail south of 25N this week, including across the 
Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.

$$
Stripling