000
AXNT20 KNHC 131049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue May 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea 
near Boke, then extends southwestward to near 05N18W. An ITCZ 
continues from 05N18W across 02N35W to near Macapa in the State of
Amapa, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is present
south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ fro 01N to 06N
between 18W and the coast of northeastern Brazil/French Guiana.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The southwestern end of a weakening cold front is causing widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida
Keys. A 1016 mb high pressure over the southeastern Gulf is 
strengthening this morning. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft exist at the south-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate 
to fresh S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the west-central 
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft 
prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
at the Florida Straits will linger through this morning. 
Meanwhile, the aforementioned high pressure should steadily 
strengthen this afternoon through Wed. This will cause fresh to 
strong southerly winds along with moderate to rough seas at the 
northwestern Gulf and off the Mexico/Texas border this afternoon 
through Thu. As the high drifts eastward, moderate to fresh 
southerly winds will linger at the western and central Gulf 
through the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Two modest surface troughs are producing widely scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern basin, and in the Gulf
of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for 
additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Tight gradient between a 
broad surface ridge near 25N and low pressure over northern 
Colombia is sustaining strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas
of 9 to 11 ft at the south-central basin. Mainly fresh ENE to E 
winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are evident at the north-central and 
southwestern basin, except gentle to moderate ENE winds with 5 to 
7 ft seas in moderate NE swell near Costa Rica and Panama. 
Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate
the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle 
winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail at the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds along with 
moderate to rough seas will persist across the central Caribbean 
through this morning, and off northwestern Colombia through this 
evening. These winds offshore from northwestern Colombia will 
occasionally gust to gale force this morning. Both winds and seas 
are expected to gradually diminish tonight through Wed. Fresh E 
winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated at the 
northeastern basin through this evening, including the Atlantic 
passages. Finally, pulsing fresh to strong E winds during the 
nighttime hours are going to occur in the Gulf of Honduras by Wed 
evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front curves southwestward from off the Carolina
coast across 31N77W to southeast of the Florida Keys. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary
from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 74W 
and 80W. Farther east, a surface trough extends southwestward from
the north-central Atlantic across 31N57W to 27N67W. Patchy 
showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this feature.
Convergent trades are coupling with a broad upper-level trough in
the vicinity to generate scattered moderate convection just east
of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

An elongated 1025 mb high near 30N37W is supporting gentle to
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas north of 23N between 35W and
70W. To the west, moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to S 
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident near the aforementioned cold 
front north of 20N between 70W and 78W. Gentle to moderate W to SW
winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft exist off the eastern Florida coast.
For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N/23N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to
9 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic
west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 
rough seas will linger offshore of Florida through today as the
aforementioned cold front moves east toward the western Atlantic.
As the cold front lifts northeastward into the western Atlantic 
tonight and Wed, winds will become SW to W behind the front and 
weaken. Farther south, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected
each afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through
Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough 
seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south of 25N this week,
including across the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.

$$

Chan