000
AXNT20 KNHC 011529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu May 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N17W then to
05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02N30W to 01N40W. No
significant convection is evident at this time.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Moderate to fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted across 
most of the Gulf this morning between high pressure over the 
western Atlantic and low pressure over central Gulf. The exception
is gentle to moderate SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas across the
northeast Gulf. Clusters of thunderstorms are approaching the 
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts from the north, but no 
significant showers or thunderstorms are noted elsewhere across 
the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure will be the main feature 
controlling the weather pattern across the Gulf through late Fri. 
Its associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh 
east to southeast winds over the basin through Sat morning. East 
winds will pulse to strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula 
and over the Bay of Campeche nightly through Fri in association 
with a diurnal trough. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas
are expected across the Straits of Florida through Fri night. 
Elsewhere, winds will diminish Fri into Sat for most of the zones.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the NE Gulf Sat night 
before shifting east of the basin Sun. High pressure will then 
build southward across the Gulf leading to mostly fresh easterly 
winds over most of the forecast zones through early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic between Bermuda
and northeast Florida is supporting fresh NE to E winds across the
north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and off 
Cabo Beata on southern coast of Hispaniola, with 4 to 6 ft wave
heights. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
A few showers and thunderstorms are active near the monsoon trough
off the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama. Divergent flow aloft
on the southeast side of an upper trough over the western Atlantic
is supporting a few thunderstorms south of Haiti, and a larger
cluster ongoing across the Virgin Islands. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
strong northeast winds tonight through the Windward Passage and in
the lee of Cuba. At the same time, fresh to strong northeast 
winds are expected south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near 
Cabo Beata. Fresh to strong northeast winds will materialize 
through the Windward Passage Fri night. Unsettled weather is 
expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean into the 
weekend. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected over the 
basin into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper low is centered near 27N57W. Scattered thunderstorms are
active under the cold-core center of the low, and along a weak
stationary front reaching from the north-central Atlantic through
31N50W to 25N60W. Farther south, a 1013 mb low pressure system is
centered near 24N54W, with a trough reaching from the low pressure
to the northern Leeward Islands. Numerous thunderstorms are 
active near the trough over the Virgin Islands currently. 1024 mb 
high pressure is centered between Bermuda the Georgia coast near 
31N70W. Generally moderate NE to E winds are noted south of the 
high pressure, except for fresh winds near the front and also near
the northern entrance to the Windward Passage. Wave heights are 
mostly 4 to 6 ft west of 55W. Farther east, 1026 mb high pressure 
is east of the front near 33N35W, and a 1000 mb gale center is 
north of Madeira near 35N15W. This pattern is supporting a large 
area of fresh to strong N winds and 8 to 13 ft seas over the 
eastern Atlantic north of 20N and east of 35W, reaching minimal 
gale force on the western side of the low. Moderate to fresh winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will remain about
stationary through Fri, then begin to shift eastward into the 
weekend. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure 
to its NW will induce fresh northeast winds north of 25N and east 
of 65W from Fri morning into the weekend. The low is forecast to 
slowly lift north-northeastward through Fri night, then weaken 
into a broad trough on Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will 
emerge off the northeast Florida coast late Sat night into Sun. 

$$
Christensen