000
AXNT20 KNHC 221802
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Strong high pressure behind the front will maintain strong NE 
winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gales 
pulsing off Colombia. For additional information, please read 
the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico and SW N Atlantic...

A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf tonight, with gale 
force NW to N winds behind the front in the western Gulf from S 
Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. As the front moves off the 
Florida coast into the SW N Atlantic, SW gale force winds are 
forecast ahead of the front N of 29N W of 77W with seas 10 to 13 
feet early Thursday morning. For additional information, please 
read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W 
and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-04N between 30W-40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1041 mb surface high over the Mid-Atlantic extends a ridge 
southward over the Southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, leading 
to relatively benign weather and moderate to fresh southeast 
winds across the basin. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus
clouds still covers the central Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging 
also covers the Gulf of Mexico with strong subsidence.

Fresh to strong SE flow will spread from the NW Gulf across the 
basin today, ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast 
tonight. Strong to gale force northerly winds will follow the 
front over the western Gulf on Wed. See Special Features Section
for more information. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf Thu
as the front moves southeast of the region. Looking ahead, SE 
flow will increase again Sat ahead of another front moving off the
Texas coast Sat night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage near 19N73W to W 
Jamaica near 18N76W. The front becomes stationary from that point 
to E Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the front N of 15N and E of 78W. Scatterometer data indicates
fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba N of 17N and W of 76W north
of the stationary front. Only typical isolated trade wind showers
are noted over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

The stationary front from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras
will dissipate today. Strong 1041 mb high pressure north of the 
area behind the front will maintain strong NE winds over much of 
the Caribbean through mid week, with gales pulsing off Colombia. 
Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure
shifts east ahead of another cold front expected to move into the
northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The second front will stall then
dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri. 
Farther east, NW swell will move into Atlc waters off the Leeward 
Islands by Wed night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N55W to 24N62W to the coast of 
Hispaniola near 23N64W. Scattered showers extend 80 to 180 nm east
of the front. No significant convection is present south of 26N. 

A cold front will become stationary from north of Puerto Rico to 
near the Windward Passage late today then dissipate through Thu. 
High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front 
will support fresh to strong winds through mid week. Strong 
southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida by Thu ahead 
of another cold front, reaching gale force north of 30N. Winds and
seas will diminish through late week as the front continues east,
stalling and weakening from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. 
Looking ahead, a weak disturbance will form along the front Sun in
the northern Bahamas and move northeast. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres