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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXNT20 KNHC 221802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean... Strong high pressure behind the front will maintain strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gales pulsing off Colombia. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico and SW N Atlantic... A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf tonight, with gale force NW to N winds behind the front in the western Gulf from S Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. As the front moves off the Florida coast into the SW N Atlantic, SW gale force winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 29N W of 77W with seas 10 to 13 feet early Thursday morning. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-04N between 30W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1041 mb surface high over the Mid-Atlantic extends a ridge southward over the Southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, leading to relatively benign weather and moderate to fresh southeast winds across the basin. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds still covers the central Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging also covers the Gulf of Mexico with strong subsidence. Fresh to strong SE flow will spread from the NW Gulf across the basin today, ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast tonight. Strong to gale force northerly winds will follow the front over the western Gulf on Wed. See Special Features Section for more information. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf Thu as the front moves southeast of the region. Looking ahead, SE flow will increase again Sat ahead of another front moving off the Texas coast Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Windward Passage near 19N73W to W Jamaica near 18N76W. The front becomes stationary from that point to E Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front N of 15N and E of 78W. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba N of 17N and W of 76W north of the stationary front. Only typical isolated trade wind showers are noted over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. The stationary front from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras will dissipate today. Strong 1041 mb high pressure north of the area behind the front will maintain strong NE winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gales pulsing off Colombia. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of another cold front expected to move into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The second front will stall then dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri. Farther east, NW swell will move into Atlc waters off the Leeward Islands by Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extending from 31N55W to 24N62W to the coast of Hispaniola near 23N64W. Scattered showers extend 80 to 180 nm east of the front. No significant convection is present south of 26N. A cold front will become stationary from north of Puerto Rico to near the Windward Passage late today then dissipate through Thu. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds through mid week. Strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida by Thu ahead of another cold front, reaching gale force north of 30N. Winds and seas will diminish through late week as the front continues east, stalling and weakening from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. Looking ahead, a weak disturbance will form along the front Sun in the northern Bahamas and move northeast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres