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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171742
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone 
near 09N13W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is along and well south of the monsoon
trough from 00N-09N between 06W-21W. Elsewhere, a band of 
scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N-11N 
between 22W-37W. A band of scattered moderate convection has
developed south of the ITCZ from 02N-03N between 36W-42W. 
Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 11N-20N between 
15W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge of high pressure extends over the northeastern 
and central Gulf of Mexico from a 1025 mb surface high over NW 
Georgia. Scattered to broken low level stratocumulus clouds are 
over portions of the central Gulf from 23N-28N between 84W-91W. 
Brownsville Texas Doppler radar indicates an area of isolated
showers just off the coast of northern Mexico from 24N-26N west 
of 96W. 

In the upper levels, high clouds are noted over southeast Texas
and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the eastern and
southern Gulf.

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected to continue 
across most of the Gulf this weekend, with high pressure over the
southeastern United States. A cold front is forecast to reach the
coast of Texas Sun night, then move slowly across the NW Gulf 
through Mon night, and move back toward the coast of Texas by Tue 
night into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the central Bahamas to Camaguey
Cuba to the Cayman Islands to 17N86W. A surface trough is just off
the coast of Honduras from 16N87W to 16.5N85W to 16N84W. 20 kt
N-NE winds cover the NW Caribbean N of the front, south of 21N and
west of 82W. A recent ASCAT pass shows winds of 25 kt south of the
front to the coast of Honduras near the location of the trough.
Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
noted within 60 nm of a line from 19N82W to 16.5N87W.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers extend out to 90 nm from
the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama from 08N-15N
between 80W-84W. The southern portion of this is influenced by the
East Pacific monsoon trough, and the rest appears to be diurnal in
nature. East of 79W, the Caribbean is relatively quiet, with the
exception of scattered showers from 15N-18N between 62W-66W.

Expect the surface front in the NW Caribbean to retreat back 
slightly to the NW while gradually dissipating by Sun. Trade winds
will increase along with building seas across the eastern and 
central Caribbean today through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and 
building seas of up to 10 ft are expected near the coast of 
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area over the W Atlantic from 
32N64.5W to 28N70W to 23N75W, where it becomes stationary. The
stationary front continues to Camaguey Cuba and into the NW
Caribbean Sea. A 1012 mb surface low is centered just SE of the
front near 25.5N72W at 1500 UTC, and a surface trough extends
south-southwestward from the low to 21N74W. The latest ASCAT data
shows winds of 25-30 kt on the south and east side of the low 
extending out to about 120 nm. Numerous moderate to scattered 
strong convection extends outward to 120 nm NE of the surface low 
and 90 nm SE of the low. This convection is located from 
24.5N-27.5N between 69.5W-72W. Northeast of this convection, 
scattered moderate convection associated with the front extends 
about 60 nm NW of the front and 120 nm SE of the front north of 
27N east of 71W. A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 
31N44W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N14W to 28N16W 
to 25N25W to 24N32W, dissipating to 24N40W. Scattered showers are 
from 22N-31N, east of 26W, including over portions of Morocco and
Western Sahara

Expect the W Atlantic front to become stationary from 31N64W to 
the SE Bahamas to E Cuba tonight. The surface low is expected to
merge with the front tonight. The front will then gradually 
dissipate through Sun night.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen