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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 232348

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2319 UTC.


The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to near
01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 02N30W to the coast of 
Brazil near 03N43W. Along the monsoon trough, isolated strong 
convection is seen from 05N-03N between 12W-17W. Scattered 
moderate convection is also seen near the ITCZ from 02S-06S 
between 22W-37W. 


Showers are moving off the western Gulf coast and into the basin.
Most of the activity is west of 88W. Otherwise, high pressure 
over the southeast U.S. is ridging across the Gulf bringing benign
conditions to the eastern and southern Gulf. Light to moderate 
easterlies are seen, with moderate to fresh winds in the west- 
central Gulf.

High pressure will prevail across the area through Wednesday, 
then retreat eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the 
northwest Gulf by Thursday. The front will reach the far eastern 
Gulf by Friday evening, where it will become stationary and 
weaken to a trough Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are expected with this frontal system. 


A mid-upper level trough digging across the western Atlantic also
stretches into the central Caribbean. This is ushering in 
moisture and showers from Central America into the southern and 
central Caribbean. Otherwise, isolated convection is seen in 
southeastern Cuba and across Hispaniola. Low-topped showers are 
also seen across the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trade are 
occurring across the eastern and western portions of the basin, 
with moderate trades near the Greater Antilles.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the south 
central and eastern Caribbean through tonight then slowly diminish
thereafter as high pressure north of the area weakens. A cold 
front may move into the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of 
Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend. 


A stationary front continues to linger across the western 
Atlantic near 31N68W and extends southward to near 24N72W. A 
trough continues from the 24N72W point to western Hispaniola near 
19N74W. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are within 100 nm of 
the front. The 1014 mb low in the central Atlantic continues to 
meander near 28N53W. A large area of scattered moderate convection
is seen from 31N to 26W between 37W-49W. Otherwise, ridging is 
seen across the rest of the basin with gentle to moderate winds. 
Near the low, moderate to fresh southerly winds are observed. 

The stationary front and trough will gradually dissipate through 
tonight. The next cold front will move off the southeastern United
States coast by Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, 
some with gusty winds, are expected to affect much of the area 
north of 27N Friday through late Saturday. 

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