AXNT20 KNHC 021009
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 2 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong NE winds behind a cold front will
increase to gale force Sat afternoon N of 28N between 48W and 56W.
These winds will continue into at least Sat night. Seas in these
region will increase to 16 to 20 ft Sat and remain hazardous
through Sun. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast of
Guinea across 08N20W to 07N24W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen south of the trough from the equator to
08N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 22W. An ITCZ then
continues from 07N24W across 08N40W to just northeast of the
French Guyana-Brazil border at 05N51W. No significant convection
is associated with the ITCZ at this time.
..GULF OF MEXICO...
A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to
the central Gulf. Scattered moderate convection are along and
within 30 nm S of the front between 89W and 92W. Scattered
moderate convection is also occurring in the vicinity of a
surface trough that extends from the Lower Texas Coast to offshore
Veracruz, Mexico. Coupling with divergent winds aloft, convergent
trades are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas
of 4 to 7 ft are noted across the central, eastern and the
northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of
4 to 6 ft dominate the west-central and southwest Gulf. Seas are
generally 4 to 7 ft, highest in the east-central Gulf.
For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
dissipate today. A cold front will likely move into the far
northern Gulf Sun, then stall Sun night and dissipate Mon.
A 1034 mb surface ridge centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast of
the U.S. is leading to an enhanced pressure gradient over the
Caribbean between it and lower pressure over northern South
America. This is inducing fresh trades across most of the basin,
with areas of strong NE winds just offshore S of Cuba and
Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.
Convergent trade winds are producing scattered convection over the
north-central and NW basin, otherwise dry conditions generally
prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, with some 8 ft seas in the areas of
For the forecast, the continued tight pressure gradient will lead
to moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the through Sat night,
with areas of strong winds in the lees of the Greater Antilles,
the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. Winds will then
slowly diminish for the start of next week.
See Special Features section above for details on gale conditions
that will develop Saturday to the SE of Bermuda, behind a cold
A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to the Central Bahamas.
Convection associated with this front has generally dissipated
overnight. To the east, a mid and upper level low and associated
trough, centered near 23N50W is producing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection N of 19N between 41W and 52W. For
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin, read the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning. Other features in the
Atlantic basin include a weak surface trough along 57W between 22N
and 28W and a weakening stationary front between Africa and the
Canary Islands along 27N, extending W to 22N.
Behind the cold front, widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds
dominate, with seas increasing to 8 to 11 ft. S of the cold front
and W of 60W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing. Between
50W and 60W, light to gentle winds prevail, but W of the mid and
upper level low and trough, moderate to fresh SE winds along with
seas of up to 8 ft area present eastward to 40W. E of 40W and S of
20W, moderate to locally fresh trades dominate, with seas of 6 to
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
become stationary tonight near 24N. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas
across most of the forecast waters. Long- period north to
northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern
Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas this weekend.