AXNT20 KNHC 191033
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...
The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and
relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected
to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next
couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach
gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as
16 ft. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United States
will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow the
gales to abate by Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast,
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our
website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N28W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-05S between 22W-46W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
As of 19/0900 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from
S Louisiana near 29N92W to S Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the front. 20 kt N winds are N of the front.
5-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere,
radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast of central
Florida near Tampa from 26N-29N between 82W-84W.
A cold front along the Texas coast will slowly move southeastward
through tonight. Reinforcing cold air will then push the front
quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale
force conditions are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico
Fri morning, and Veracruz Fri evening. Expect strong N-NE winds
elsewhere behind the front and building seas through early Sat.
A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south-
central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the
warning section above. Otherwise, 10-30 kt tradewind flow
continues across the Caribbean Sea. Weakest winds are over the
Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are moving within the
tradewind flow south of 19N.
High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to gale
force off the coast of Colombia at night. Winds and seas will
diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic Thu
through Fri night. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach
the Yucatan Channel Fri night, and move across the NW Caribbean
through Sat night.
A 1035 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 39N17W. A
ridge axis extends WSW to N Florida. Of note in the upper levels,
an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N56W to
20N57W. Scattered showers are within 360 nm E of the trough axis.
High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds
near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front moving
off the SE U.S. coast today will stall near 30N through Thu.
Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front across the
forecast area Thu night through Sat. Near gale force winds are
expected on both sides of the front on Fri. Winds will gradually
diminish across the region Sat and Sun. Large NE swell is expected
to impact much of the area this weekend.