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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 190007

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.



The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure over Colombia will continue to support gale force winds 
south of 18N between 66W an 83W every night through Sat. Sea 
heights will build up to 14-15 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website for further details.


A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc with axis extending from
03N21W to 13N21W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Upper level diffluent flow
supports scattered moderate convection from 05N to 09N between 20W
and 24W. The remainder wave environment is devoid of convection
partly due to strong wind shear and Saharan dry air in the
northern region of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
03N52W to 14N52W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Upper level diffluence and
abundant low to middle level moisture support scattered moderate
convection from 07N to 12N between 48W and 57W. This wave is
forecast to bring gusty winds and rain to the Windward Islands on

A tropical wave is in the east Caribbean with axis extending from
09N62W to 17N62W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Upper level diffluence and
abundant low to middle level moisture support scattered showers
across the Windward Islands, the SE Caribbean and portions of

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 07N73W to 17N72W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Low level water vapor
imagery show a dry environment in that portion of the basin that
along with strong wind shear hinder the development of convection
at the time.


The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 
09N13W to 07N22W to 06N26W. The ITCZ begins near 06N26W and
continues along 06N38W to 06N48W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 26W and 40W.


A middle to upper level short-wave trough extends from the
northern central basin to a base near the Yucatan Peninsula. This
upper feature supports a surface trough from SE Louisiana to
26N94W. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper trough and
moisture being advected from the Caribbean by S-SE flow fuel
scattered showers and tstms over the NE gulf N of 25N E of 91W.
Similar shower activity is in portions of the Florida Straits and
off the western coast of Cuba. An upper ridge entering the 
western half of the basin support fair weather conditions in that
region. Showers will prevail in the NE Gulf through early Thu when
the upper trough moves east of the region. Otherwise, surface 
ridging will prevail across most of the gulf through the weekend
along with return flow. A diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan
Peninsula will produce fresh to locally strong winds over the Bay
of Campeche each night as it moves off the coast. 


The main concern in the Caribbean will be gale force winds
developing every night near the coast of Colombia through Sat. 
An upper level short-wave trough is along the Florida Peninsula. 
Diffluent flow to the east of this feature support scattered 
showers and tstms across portions of Cuba and adjacent waters.
A tropical wave is moving across the eastern basin generating
showers in the Windward Islands. Another tropical wave is moving
across the central basin, however it lacks convection. A third
tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean on Wed,
thus supporting the continuation of showers in the Windward
Islands. Gusty winds are possible with the passage of this wave
through the region. Otherwise, strong winds are expected to 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. Generally moderate to 
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Sat night. For 
further information on the gale, and the tropical waves. See 
sections above. 


An upper-level trough along the Florida Peninsula support a
surface trough, which is generating showers and tstms along the
Florida seaboard and over the northern and central Bahamas.
Surface ridging prevails elewhere supporting fair weather. The 
surface trough will move slowly eastward off the coast of NE 
Florida through late Wed. Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola 
each night through Thu night. Otherwise, the ridge will dominate 
the region through Sat night. Winds will increase some over the 
northern waters Thu through Fri as the gradient pressure tightens 
between the ridge and a low pressure system moving off NE of 
United States.

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