Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 301613

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1610 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressure over 
Colombia will support fresh to strong NE to E trades over the 
central Caribbean through early next week. Winds near the coast 
of NW Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the evening and
early morning through early next week. Seas are expected to peak 
near 12 ft each morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N16W to 10N17W. The ITCZ is analyzed south of the
equator. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed S of 06N and E of 20W.


Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the NW Gulf, where 
seas range from 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh SE winds over the NW Gulf will expand 
eastward through Fri as high pressure builds over the 
southeastern United States. Fresh to locally strong winds off 
the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week.


Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Aside from the gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, fresh
to strong NE to E winds prevail over the south central 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the 
Caribbean waters, except gentle to moderate in the lee of Cuba. 
Seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range over the south central 
Caribbean. Seas over the western Caribbean are in the 2 to 4 ft 
range. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to 
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through early next 
week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each 
night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong 
across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. 
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the 
Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North 
Atlantic this weekend.


A cold front extends from 31N59W to the central Bahamas. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed on either side of the 
front between 52W to 73W from 25N to 31N. Moderate to fresh S to 
SW winds are found E of the front to 40W, and N of 27N. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE winds are found from 20N to 30N and east of 
30W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere across the 
discussion waters. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in the region 
of fresh winds N of 28N, and in the area of strong winds east of 
30W. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range south of 25N and west of 
65W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. 

In the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southeastward 
through Fri, reaching along 22N/23N before it weakens and 
dissipates Sat. High pressure building in the wake of the front 
will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds across the Bahamas starting tonight 
before diminishing Sat. Fresh to strong southwest winds will 
develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida Fri night 
in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast 
of the SE United States this weekend. This cold front is 
expected to move southeast, becoming stationary from near 31N59W 
to 26N73W by late Mon. The strong southwest winds are forecast 
to lift north of the area Sun.


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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Mar-2023 16:13:12 UTC