NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170443
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Dec 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0443 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwest N Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure is forecast to 
develop along the stationary front that extends from 28.5N55W 
southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends westward across
central and western Cuba. Gale force winds are expected in the NW
quadrant of the low center Thu early morning through Fri as it 
lifts N of our forecast region. Seas will build to 16 ft with 
these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and 
continues westward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 
04N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen 
from 01N to 07N between 13W and 35W. Isolated moderate convection
is seen from 02N to 05N between 44W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough over the western Gulf is supporting scattered 
showers north of 26N, and west of 91W. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high 
pressure over southern Georgia is controlling conditions across 
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the SE Gulf 
including the Straits of Florida due to a diffuse surface trough 
near 85W, locally strong winds are seen near the Straits. Moderate
to fresh SE winds prevail over the western Gulf. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas 
are 6-9 ft in the SE Gulf, and 2 to 5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas prevail
across the SE waters, including the Straits of Florida, and will 
gradually decrease on Wed. A ridge along about 32N will dominate 
the Gulf region through Thu, with winds veering to the S and SW 
ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf Wed
evening. This front will reach from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri 
evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica
with scattered moderate convection noted inland and just offshore
Nicaragua, as well as offshore of northern Honduras. Similar
convection is over the remainder of the SW Caribbean due to
the combination of low-level convergence of the trade winds along
with instability provided by the close proximity of the eastern 
Pacific Ocean monsoon trough that extends eastward across southern
Costa Rica and across Panama.

A frontal system just N of the basin has allowed for a slightly 
weaker pressure gradient than normal with moderate to fresh winds 
in the central Caribbean, locally strong winds are offshore 
northern Colombia with 1009 mb low pressure near the coast. Moderate
to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 5-7 
ft in the S-central portion, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 ft 
N of 17N between 78W and 83W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas will prevail over the south-central 
Caribbean through Thu as high pressure shifts eastward into the 
western Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds 
and rough seas in large E swell will persist over the tropical 
Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the 
eastern part of the basin through Thu night. High pressure will 
strengthen north of the basin Fri into the weekend to bring a 
return to fresh to strong trades across the central and southwest 
Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on a
developing Gale Warning in the Southwest N Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 28.5N55W southwestward through 
the SE Bahamas, then extends westward across central and western 
Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted S of 29N and W of the 
front, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere W of the front. Seas
of 8-14 ft in NW-N swell is noted W of the front to 77W, with 4-8
ft offshore northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted along and within 300 nm NW of the front. A strong 1032 mb 
high pressure is noted N of the eastern Atlantic waters near
33N34W with a ridge reaching SW of the high and ahead of the 
front to 27N44W. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge 
and the ITCZ supports a large area and fetch of fresh to strong 
winds S of 23N and E of the Lesser Antilles with resultant 8-13 
ft seas. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 31N and through the 
Canary Islands to the E of 20W, supporting seas of 8-16 ft. Refer 
to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website at
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. Mainly moderate winds 
and 5-8 ft seas are across the remainder of the waters which is 
primarily between the front and the ridge axis. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 
28.5N55W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends 
westward across central and western Cuba. Fresh to strong N to NE 
winds prevail north of the front to about 28.5N. The front and 
these winds will generally persist through Wed before diminishing 
W of 65W. Large N swell will continue to move through the regional
waters through tonight before subsiding from NW to SE through 
Thu. Frontal remnants are expected to continue across the NE zones
through Wed evening, when low pressure is forecast to develop 
along the boundary, near 28N61W. Gale force winds are expected to 
develop across the NW quadrant of the low center Thu through early
Fri as the low moves NE and gradually exits the forecast area. 
The next cold front will move into the NW waters Fri, reach from 
near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, and from 
31N55W to the central Bahamas on Sun morning. Another cold front 
may move off NE Florida by Sun night.

$$
KRV