756 
AXNT20 KNHC 160957
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to 
develop in the central Atlantic tonight. As the system 
intensifies, gale- force winds are expected by this evening across
the northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 25N between 45W 
and 55W. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these winds. 
The low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N22W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection within 300 nm on either
side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters, analyzed from
30N88W to 21N97W. Recent satellite derived wind data confirm the 
presence of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front. 
Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 11 ft across the east-central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are 
noted in the wake of the front. Scattered thunderstorms ahead of 
the front are noted N of 27N and E of 87W.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move southeast 
and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by 
this morning, and move E of the Gulf tonight. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds ahead of the front will prevail today across the 
eastern Gulf waters, then fresh to strong northerly winds behind 
the front will develop today though Mon night. Looking ahead, high
pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. As the 
high pressure moves toward N Florida fresh to strong southerly 
return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue. 
Looking ahead, another cold front is slated to enter the Gulf 
region by mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW 
Caribbean, while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of 
America. This pattern is allowing for fresh to strong SE to S 
winds over the the NW Caribbean, particularly N of 15N and W of 
83W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within 
these winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed per 
scatterometer data in the Windward Passage as well as over the 
south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to 
moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are
3 to 5 ft with the strongest winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.  

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW 
Caribbean will diminish later today as the cold front currently 
moving across the Gulf of America reaches the Yucatan Channel by 
tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will 
follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf 
of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near 
Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night
into Wed. High pressure over the central Atlantic combined with 
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong 
speeds at night offshore Colombia through early this week. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward 
Passage and south of the Dominican Republic today. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features
section for more details. 

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N21W and 
continues southwestward to near 22N40W, where it transitions into
a stationary front that extends to 22N61W. Farther north, 1032 mb
high pressure centered near 36N47W dominates the western 
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the
frontal boundary supports an area of fresh to strong E winds N of
the stationary front between 40W and 70W, where seas are in the 8
to 11 ft range. Fresh NE to E winds and large northerly swell of 
8 to 14 ft is noted elsewhere north of the front. Moderate winds 
and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. A short wave trough in the 
mid/upper levels is interacting with the frontal boundary to 
support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly N of 20N
between 44W and 56W. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high pressure center is 
analyzed at 27N17W, extending a weak ridge across much of the 
remaining subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds 
and moderate seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a developing low pressure will 
support gale-force winds east of 55W by tonight. These conditions 
will likely last through Mon night, then diminishing to fresh to 
strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support 
rough to very seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a 
strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast tonight
preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds and rough
seas. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos 
and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed 
morning.

$$
ERA