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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



265 
AXNT20 KNHC 190529
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE at 19/0300 UTC is near
30.4N 27.9W. JOYCE is moving SSW, or 200 degrees, 07 knots. The 
estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. 
Rainshowers are possible from 27N to 32N between 26W and 34W. THIS
IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ABOUT JOYCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO 
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 20N 
southward, partially in Africa and partially in the ocean. The 
accompanying precipitation is in Africa.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 19N 
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover 
the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 20N between 
57W and 63W.

A surface trough is along 44W/45W from 12N southward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to
12N between 40W and 51W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 11N14W, to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N25W,
and to 08N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers 
are within 190 nm on either side of the line that runs from 
09N14W 07N19W, 06N27W, 06N38W, to 11N51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, across the N
central Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas near 27N97W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters/coastal
plains of SE Louisiana and S MISSISSIPPI, and from 27N southward.

Weak high pressure extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico,
supporting light breezes and minimal seas. A surface trough, that
is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, will move across the 
Yucatan Channel through Wed, into the southwest Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday and Friday, and then dissipate on Saturday. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from NW
Cuba to E sections of Honduras. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to Cuba between 79W and
84W. 

Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers in clusters are from 13N
southward from 77W westward, in broad upper level cyclonic wind 
flow. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W, to Panama near 09N80W, 
and beyond NW Costa Rica. Maximo

A surface trough, that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, 
will continue moving westward overnight and exit the area on 
Wednesday, accompanied by active weather. A tropical wave, that is
moving across the Lesser Antilles early tonight, will move into 
the eastern Caribbean Sea later tonight, through the central 
Caribbean Sea from Thursday into Friday, and pass to the west of 
the area through late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure, that is
building from the central Atlantic Ocean into the central 
Bahamas, will support moderate to fresh trade winds and building 
seas across the entire basin from late Wednesday through Friday. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE.

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center,
that is about 160 nm to the SSW of Bermuda, to the southern half 
of the Bahamas. A surface trough passes through 32N64W, to 28N66W,
and to 23N70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers 
cover the area that runs from 20N northward between 47W and the 
Windward Passage. 

A surface trough, reaching from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas, 
will shift NW slowly and weaken through early Wednesday, as the 
central Atlantic Ocean ridge builds into the central Bahamas. Low 
pressure moving off the Carolinas will drag an attendant frontal 
trough across the waters north of 27N on Thursday and Friday. The 
low will move to near 31N67W on Friday evening, and then drift W 
and weaken slowly on Saturday and Sunday. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 19-Sep-2018 05:29:14 UTC