000 AXNT20 KNHC 041730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jul 04 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Near the Southeastern United States (AL92): Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 130 nm off the NE Florida coast has become better defined today with an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could form later today or on Sat while the system drifts generally north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. by early Sun. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Sat, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Sat. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours, and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system located NE of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will support gale-force northeast winds with severe gusts close and between the Canary Islands from 04/18 UTC until at least 05/12 UTC according to Meteo France. Seas will be moderate to rough, peaking around 11 ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility may be reduced to moderate or poor due to haze. For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A weak 1013 mb low is along the wave axis near 19N. This wave remains surrounded by a dry and stable atmospheric environment. Only scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to 10N. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W from 04N to 16N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. A dry and stable atmospheric environment also surrounds this wave. Only isolated showers are near its southern part. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis is along 66W south of 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is positioned to the southeast of a broad upper-level trough that reaches from the central Atlantic to the central Caribbean. Upper-level divergence is helping to sustain an area of scattered moderate convection within 120 nm east of the wave from 13N to 15N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 13N to 15N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 18N between 64W and 69W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W south of 19N to inland Central America and reaching farther south to the eastern Pacific near 05N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the eastern section Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues westward through a weak 1013 mb low near 19N25W and southwestward from there to 10N35W and to 07N44W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 05N52W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 09N48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough extends from central Florida to 28N85W, then curves northwestward to just east of southeastern Louisiana while a weak 1018 mb high centered is analyzed over the central Gulf and dominates the remainder of the basin. This synoptic set-up is supporting light to gentle west to northwest winds east of 90W and gentle to moderate southeast to south winds west of 90W. Seas of 3 ft or less are across the basin, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the west-central Gulf waters. satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm south of the trough E of about 90W. Similar activity is also present south of 25N E of 86W to the vicinity of the Florida Keys and inland southern Florida. For the forecast, a trough will remain across the NE Gulf through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next week. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next week as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details. The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trades over most of the central part of the basin as indicated by a 1415Z scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas over these waters are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of about 80W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft N of 15N between 72W and 80W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Aside from the convection associated with the passing tropical waves, generally dry conditions are noted over the tropical waters with low-topped trade wind showers moving westward across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh east winds in the Gulf of Honduras beginning on Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information. Unsettled weather conditions continue across the waters just E of Florida and the NW Bahamas as an area of low pressure centered near 31N79W drifts northward. Recent scatterometer data indicates a broad swath of fresh to near-gale south to southwest winds located to the east and southeast of the low pressure, namely N of 28N between 75W and 79W. Seas over these waters are 3 to 5 ft, but may be higher in and near scattered to numerous moderate convection that exists north of 26N between 75W and 80W, and also from 23N to 26N between 76W and 78W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are S of 28N between 55W and 78W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 5 ft. Farther E, a trough is analyzed from near 28N63W to 25N66W and to near 21N68W. This feature is under a broad upper-level trough that is helping to initiate an increasing area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to 29N between 61W and 68W. To the NE of this area of convection, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 26N to 31N between 54W and 61W. A trough extends from near 31N39W to 27N47W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. The remainder of the Atlantic domain is under the influence of a strong 1035 mb high pressure system located NE of the Azores. The present pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures over the NW Africa is allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds north of about 20N and east of 31W, including between the Canary Islands, where winds are reaching minimal gale force, and along coastal Western Sahara. Rough seas are associated with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, see the Special Features section for details related to low pressure that is located about 130 nm off the NE Florida coast. Otherwise, the present synoptic pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong south winds and building seas N of 29N and W of 75W. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. Farther south, fresh winds will pulse off the north coast of Hispaniola starting Sat night, becoming fresh to strong winds by Mon night. $$ Aguirre
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Page last modified: Friday, 04-Jul-2025 23:04:31 UTC