000
AXNT20 KNHC 221024
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W, from 16 southward, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave 
from 06N to 10N between 40W to 46W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 16N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are noted from 
09N to 13N between 54W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 21N southward, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate 
to locally strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical 
wave from 16N to the Dominican Republic. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 21N southward, 
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong is south of 12N between 76W to 79W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea 
near 10N14W, to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 02N39W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N from 13W to 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 31N75W, 
through northern Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, 
toward NE Mexico/the deep south of Texas. Scattered moderate
convection has developed during the overnight hours over the Bay 
of Campeche and in the SE Gulf of Mexico with moderate to fresh
winds. Gentle to moderate winds cover the remainder of the basin. 
The sea heights are in the range of 3 to 4 ft from 92W eastward, 
and in the range of 1 to 3 feet elsewhere. 

Weak high pressure will dominate into early next week, although a
stalling cold front will skirt across the NE Gulf this weekend. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected across the central 
and eastern Gulf through the weekend, otherwise gentle to moderate
winds will prevail early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean 
Sea from 70W westward.

Fresh to strong winds are to the east of the Lesser Antilles. 
The sea heights range from 5 to 7 feet. Gentle to moderate trade 
winds are generally in the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range 
from 3 feet to 5 feet from 18N southward from 80W eastward, from 
3 to 4 feet in the Yucatan Channel, and from 1 to 3 feet elsewhere.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong 
trades E of the Windward Islands through the weekend becoming 
moderate across the central Caribbean early next week. During this
period, moderate to fresh winds are expected over the south-
central Caribbean, with winds reaching locally strong in the 
Venezuela basin. Gentle to moderate tradewinds will prevail 
elsewhere. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that 
is near 34N53W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the 
Atlantic Ocean northward, from 50W westward. Broad surface 
anticyclonic wind flow also is from 30N northward between 20W and 
40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to 31N
between 51W to 68W. 

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are N of the 25N61W to 23N71W 
surface trough, particularly between 60W and 70W, with sea heights
ranging from 6 to 7 feet. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds 
are to the north of the ITCZ. The sea heights range from 4 to 6 
feet, generally. The exception is the range from 6 to 9 feet, to 
the west of the Canary Islands, in NW swell.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the 
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. 
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing 
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

High pressure will move east of the area tonight, and a weak cold
front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri night, then stall over 
northwest portions of the area through the weekend. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds will subside tonight as the high pressure 
moves away from the area. 

$$

Torres