Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 241724

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1224 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W
and extends to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to the 
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. No significant convection is related
to these boundaries at this time.


A cold front extends across the basin from 30N87W to 26N90W to
22N96W. A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from
22N96W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are noted along and southeast 
of the front/trough. The latest ASCAT pass depicts gentle to
moderate winds across the basin.

The cold front will stretch from southwest Florida to Tampico by 
early Sat. The front will then lift north over the western Gulf 
through late Sun as a warm front, ahead of a low pressure system 
moving off the coast of Texas Sun. The low and a trailing cold 
front will move into the southwest Gulf Mon as the low pressure 
weakens. Looking ahead, another weak low pressure area will move 
off the Texas coast Tue.


A cold front extends across the northeast Caribbean from 18N64W to
16N70W. A surface trough extends from 15N70W to 09N77W. Scattered
showers are noted within 75 nm on either sides of the
front/trough, affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate 
trades prevailing across the basin.

The front southeast of Puerto Rico will stall and dissipate later
today. Benign marine conditions will prevail the rest of the week
as a weak pressure gradient dominates the area.


A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 28N80W to
26N79W with scattered showers. To the east, a 1006 mb surface low
is centered near 30N59W, with cold front extending from the low to
30N57W to 18N63W. Scattered showers are noted along the front.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds mainly north of
20N and west of 50W, with near gale winds north of 27N between
53W-58W. To the east, an upper level low is reflected at the
surface as a trough that extends from 27N32W to 22N33W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The cold front near Puerto Rico will stall and weaken later this 
afternoon. Lingering fresh northerly winds behind the front will 
gradually diminish this afternoon, and large seas will continue to
propagate SE and subside this weekend. The next cold front will 
move off the southeast U.S. coast Sat morning, reach from Bermuda 
to western Cuba on Sun, then weaken Mon. Looking ahead, a weak low
along a front will move across south Florida to the Bahamas early
next week. 


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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Jan-2020 17:24:42 UTC