Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 091756

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.



A cold front will move off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of 
Mexico on Tuesday. Behind the front, strong to gale force NW to N
winds are expected Tuesday night in the far western Gulf near the
coast of Mexico, mainly south of 24N. The gales will spread south 
to the waters offshore of Veracruz for Wed. See the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to 
00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-11N near
the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone, and from 00N-04N between 
14W-36W along the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. 


A N-S surface trough is along 84/87W from 24N-29N. Scattered 
showers and isolated tstorms are seen in the vicinity of the 
trough axis. A 1036 mb high pressure centered near 39N58W 
extends SW into the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT indicates SE moderate
to fresh winds across the W Gulf with no significant convection 

Fresh to locally strong S return flow will prevail today into 
tonight across the W Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. This 
cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tue, then extend from 
the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wed. Gale force 
NW to N winds are expected west of the front along the coast of 
Mexico Tue night through Wed. The front will stall from the 
Florida peninsula to the Bay of Campeche Thu, then gradually 
lift northward across the E Gulf as a warm front on Fri. 


Isolated showers continue along the east coast of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica from 09N-13N between 81W-83W. The latest ASCAT data 
depicts fresh trades north of Colombia and over portions of the 
south-central and southwest basin, with moderate trades throughout
the rest of the basin. Abundant dry air is present across the 
basin limiting much convection.

A strong Bermuda High will dominate the SW North Atlantic through
Wed. Trades will increase to near gale force just north of the 
Colombian coast late tonight. Elsewhere, expect building seas and 
fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean as 
well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week. As the 
Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward Thu through Fri, winds 
and seas will gradually subside across the region.


A cold front is sinking southward from 31N44W to 28N59W to 
28N68W, continuing as stationary to 31N72W. Isolated showers are 
seen along both of these features. The most recent ASCAT pass 
shows strong to fresh anticyclonic surface winds north of 21N 
between 50W-77W.

A little farther east, a cold front extends from 32N47W to a 1020
mb low near 27N51W to 23N59W, then stationary to 22N64W. Due to
the moderate to fresh NE anticyclonic winds, a shear line has been
analyzed from 22N64W to 20N71W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm of the low, and along and behind the front 180 nm to
the N between 44W-52W. High pressure dominates the rest of the 
basin anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N21W. 

A stationary front draped across the NE waters will weaken later 
today. Fresh to strong easterly flow will persist across the 
waters northeast of the Bahamas today as a strong Bermuda High 
passes eastward across the western Atlantic. A cold front is 
expected to move off the SE United States coast Wed, then stall 
and weaken over the N waters Thu into Fri. 


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Page last modified: Monday, 09-Dec-2019 17:57:00 UTC