Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 132341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


...Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is currently moving eastward across the Gulf 
of Mexico. The front extends from 30N84W to 25N88W to 20N91.5W to
17N92.5W as of 2100 UTC. Gale force winds are occurring west of 
the front mainly west of 90W. Storm force winds are occurring 
offshore of Veracruz. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale 
force for areas north of 26N later tonight. The front will reach
from near Cedar Key, Florida to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula 
by Wed morning. Winds and seas will gradually subside through late
week as the front sweeps southeast of the area by late Thu. Gentle 
to moderate northerly flow will cover the Gulf Fri. Refer to the 
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC for more details. 


A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 63W from 14N
southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are affecting portions of the Windward Islands,
Trinidad, northeastern Venezuela and waters from 09N-15N between 


The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 12N20W to 09N24W. The ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 04N29W to
02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm north and
within 480 nm south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm north and within 120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 24W-44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 360
nm north of the ITCZ between 44W-49W.


A strong cold front extends across the basin, with gale and storm
force winds prevailing over portions of the western Gulf of 
Mexico. See the Special Features section above for more details on
the gale force winds. Overcast low clouds with scattered showers 
cover the Gulf of Mexico west of the front. Elsewhere, isolated
showers and thunderstorms are east of the front over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico waters south of 23N.


A surface trough is over the Leeward and Virgin Islands from 
23N60W to 16N64W. An upper-level low is located over the Virgin 
Islands and Puerto Rico near 18N65W, and is interacting with the
surface trough to enhance convection in the area. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 16N-22N between 58W-68W,
including near and over portions of the Leeward and Virgin 
Islands as well as Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also occurring near and over Hispaniola. This
system continues to have a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. This system is expected to 
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, 
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days as 
it moves generally westward to west-northwestward.

In the southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted south of 12N between 73W-85W, including over
northern Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua due
to the East Pacific monsoon trough. At this time, strong
convection is particularly active over northern Colombia north of
6.5N and over the western half of Panama.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds 
over most of the region. The trough across the Virgin Islands 
extending NE into the adjacent Atlantic will move across Puerto 
Rico through late tonight, and then across Hispaniola Wed. The 
combination of this trough and the tropical wave over the 
southeast Caribbean will spread enhanced showers and thunderstorms
westward through the east-central Caribbean, reaching Hispaniola 
and the ABC Islands by late Wednesday and early Thursday.

Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow a cold front
entering the Yucatan Channel late Wed. Expect enhanced shower and
thunderstorm activity with periods of heavy rain for portions of 
the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras and the adjacent waters of
the northwest Caribbean through early Fri. Fresh northerly winds 
and seas to 8 ft will spread across the northwest Caribbean into 
Fri behind the front, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front 
stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of the 
northwest Bahamas between 76W and the east coast of Florida. This 
activity is enhanced by the front to the northwest of the area and
the daytime heating over Florida, with strong upper-level 
southwesterlies pushing this activity into the western Atlantic.

The surface trough over the Virgin Islands and associated 
convection that extends into the Atlantic northward to 22N between
58W-68W is discussed above in the Caribbean Sea section.

The tail-end of a frontal boundary extends from 32N39W to 31N43W.
A line of scattered showers ahead of the front is occurring within
30 nm either side of a line from 32N29W to 29N35W to 27N40W to
25.5N44W. The line is moving southeastward around 20 kt. A 1025 
mb surface high is centered over the Atlantic near 30N44W.

High pressure over the NW Atlantic will shift ESE ahead of a cold
front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front 
will reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central 
Cuba late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile a trough across the NE 
Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic will move westward across Puerto 
Rico through tonight, across Hispaniola Wed, and through the 
southern Bahamas by late Thu. Low pressure may form along the 
trough as it reaches the Bahamas then recurve northward Fri to the
east of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold front, then move 
north of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from Bermuda to 
eastern Cuba. 

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Nov-2018 23:41:24 UTC