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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162201
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 16.5N 111.8W at 16/2100 
UTC moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 
14N to 22N between 104W and 113W, and from 10N to 16N between 
113W and 119W. The cyclone should begin a northward track with 
an increase in forward speed later tonight and Sunday. On the 
forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move 
near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late 
Sunday or early Monday. Weakening is forecast and Raymond is 
expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and 
it should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. See latest 
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 9.5N 101.0W at 
16/2100 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N 
between 98W and 104W. A westward to west-northwestward motion at 
a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next few 
days. Little change in strength is forecast through early next 
week and the depression could degenerate into a remnant low or 
dissipate at any time during the next 72 hours. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient 
between high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and lower 
pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting gale 
force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are currently 
peaking around 15 ft just downstream of the Gulf. Gale force 
winds are expected to persist through tonight, then diminish Sun 
morning as the influence of the ridge diminishes over the Gulf 
and the pressure gradient weakens. See the latest High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 09N98W. It 
resumes west of T.S. Raymond from 14N112W to 10N121W to 11N128W. 
The ITCZ extends from 11N128W to 13N133W, then resumes from 
12N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 
10N W of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
T.S. Raymond, T.D. Twenty-One-E, and the gale force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Marine conditions over the offshore waters between Manzanillo 
and Los Cabos will continue to deteriorate through the remaining 
weekend as T.S. Raymond moves northward across the area. 
Elsewhere, NW swell propagating into the northern waters is 
producing 8-10 ft seas over the outer waters west of Guadalupe 
Island. This swell will continue spreading across the region and 
mix with swell from Raymond, resulting in seas greater than 8 ft 
across much of the region north of Cabo Corrientes by Sun. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off northern Baja 
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week 
as a cold front moves through the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning 
hours through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest 
monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa 
Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days. 
Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more 
information on T.D. Twenty-One-E. 

Seas are running 8-12 ft in NW swell across the northwest 
forecast waters, with the highest seas noted north of 13N and 
west of 130W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward 
the next couple of days while slowly decaying.

A 1012 mb low pressure center near 13N135W is expected to weaken 
to a trough later tonight, then shift west of the forecast area 
on Sun. Seas associated with this low pressure have merged with 
the large area of NW swell previously described.

$$
Ramos