000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 111W, moving W at 10-15W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N between 100W 
and 114W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N94W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N94W to 08N109W, then resumes W of the tropical 
wave near 08N114W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04N to 11N and E of 94W, and from 02N to 10N and W of
115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the 
Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over NW Mexico 
are supporting moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja 
California. Fresh NE winds prevail across the Tehuantepec 
region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with
5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, except for light winds 
and seas 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending into the Baja 
California waters will continue strengthens modestly across the 
area through Tue night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across
the Baja California waters. Moderate to fresh gap winds across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to pulse at night through 
midweek, then winds will peak to strong from Wed night through 
Fri night. Cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the waters off 
southern Mexico on Mon, building seas to around 7 ft. Expect 
fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue 
and Wed becoming strong on Thu. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 06N and across 
Panama, and Costa Rica, and extend northward into the SW 
Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Fresh to  
strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and 
extends offshore to 92W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with 
seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong each night through midweek leading to
rough seas. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will move 
into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun 
through Tue, building seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across 
much of the remaining waters farther N. The combination of the 
southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap 
winds will allow combined seas to build to 8 ft offshore of 
northern Central America Tue through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the
area waters tonight, extending southeastward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and the remnants of Douglas, now a trough from 27N127W to 21N132W,
is producing fresh winds near the trough. Peak seas are still to
9 ft to the NW of the trough. The ridge supports gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds elsewhere north of 15N and west of 120W, 
with 5-7 ft seas in a mixed swell. East of 120W, a plume of 
fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail from 10N to 15N
between 100W and 115W. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east 
of 110W, with seas to 7 ft. Active thunderstorms continue about 
the tropical wave along 111W, between 100W and 115W.

For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas 
will continue drifting westward as a trough through the next few
days. The ridge will drift southwestward and persist across the 
region through early week, supporting moderate to fresh trade 
winds into the tropics. The tropical wave will continue moving 
westward with scattered moderate convection.

$$
ERA