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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



962 
AXPZ20 KNHC 200922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
921 UTC Sat Jul 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis near 86W is moving west at 15 to 20 
kt. No significant convection are noted.

A tropical wave with axis near 104W is moving west at 15 to 20 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N 
between 100W and 105W, and within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico
between 100W and 105W.

A tropical wave with axis near 115W is moving west at 15 to 20 
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
90 nm of a line from 07N121W to 13N112W. Environmental 
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development during 
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
early next week. There is a high chance this area of disturbed 
weather evolve into a tropical cyclone within the next five days.
Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather 
Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N110W to 10N120W to 17N135W
to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N 
to 12N between 100W and 105W, and within 90 nm of a line from 
07N121W to 13N112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging north of 20N continues to support gentle to 
moderate NW winds off the coast of Baja California. A surface 
trough over the Baja California peninsula supports light to 
gentle southerly flow across the Gulf of California. A mid level 
trough moving off north central Mexico will allow the trough to
deepen today, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over 
the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are expected to resume by Mon. 

Farther south, a tropical wave with axis along 104W continue to 
support showers and thunderstorms over the Mexican offshore 
waters between Acapulco and Manzanillo. A surface trough moving 
off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche at night will 
support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Sun. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will 
dominate afterwards through early next week. 

Looking ahead, global models continue to indicate some 
development along the tropical wave currently with axis near 
115W. This could bring increased winds and seas to the 
Revillagigedo Islands by early next week, although the forecast 
remains highly uncertain at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh
to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of 
Papagayo, as noted in an earlier scatterometer pass. These winds
will persist through the weekend with seas peaking near 8 ft 
each morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds south of the 
monsoon trough will briefly strengthen to fresh speeds later this
weekend, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Moderate trade winds persist roughly north of 13N and west of 
130W between weak ridging over the northern waters and 1011 mb low
pressure along the now monsoon trough near 17N135W being induced
by a Kelvin Wave entering the area. Scatterometer data show 
fresh to strong S to SW winds within 90 nm on the southeast
quadrant of the low pressure where altimeter data show seas in 
the 8 to 9 ft range. Winds and seas associated with this area of
low pressure will subside by Sun.

Farther east, fresh winds are in the vicinity of a tropical wave 
with axis near 115W. This feature has a high chance of tropical 
cyclone formation during the next five days. Please see the 
Tropical Waves section above for more information about its 
potential for tropical cyclone development.

$$
Christensen