AXPZ20 KNHC 162201
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 16 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 16.5N 111.8W at 16/2100
UTC moving N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from
14N to 22N between 104W and 113W, and from 10N to 16N between
113W and 119W. The cyclone should begin a northward track with
an increase in forward speed later tonight and Sunday. On the
forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move
near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late
Sunday or early Monday. Weakening is forecast and Raymond is
expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and
it should degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25
KNHC for more details.
Tropical Depression Twenty-One is centered near 9.5N 101.0W at
16/2100 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N
between 98W and 104W. A westward to west-northwestward motion at
a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next few
days. Little change in strength is forecast through early next
week and the depression could degenerate into a remnant low or
dissipate at any time during the next 72 hours. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
for more details.
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
between high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and lower
pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting gale
force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are currently
peaking around 15 ft just downstream of the Gulf. Gale force
winds are expected to persist through tonight, then diminish Sun
morning as the influence of the ridge diminishes over the Gulf
and the pressure gradient weakens. See the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 09N98W. It
resumes west of T.S. Raymond from 14N112W to 10N121W to 11N128W.
The ITCZ extends from 11N128W to 13N133W, then resumes from
12N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
10N W of 135W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section above for details about
T.S. Raymond, T.D. Twenty-One-E, and the gale force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Marine conditions over the offshore waters between Manzanillo
and Los Cabos will continue to deteriorate through the remaining
weekend as T.S. Raymond moves northward across the area.
Elsewhere, NW swell propagating into the northern waters is
producing 8-10 ft seas over the outer waters west of Guadalupe
Island. This swell will continue spreading across the region and
mix with swell from Raymond, resulting in seas greater than 8 ft
across much of the region north of Cabo Corrientes by Sun.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase off northern Baja
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week
as a cold front moves through the region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds are expected in the
Gulf of Papagayo mainly during the overnight and early morning
hours through early next week. Gentle to moderate southwest
monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore waters of Costa
Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next several days.
Wave heights will generally remain in the 4-7 ft range.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on T.D. Twenty-One-E.
Seas are running 8-12 ft in NW swell across the northwest
forecast waters, with the highest seas noted north of 13N and
west of 130W. This swell will continue to spread southeastward
the next couple of days while slowly decaying.
A 1012 mb low pressure center near 13N135W is expected to weaken
to a trough later tonight, then shift west of the forecast area
on Sun. Seas associated with this low pressure have merged with
the large area of NW swell previously described.