000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240327
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0325 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific 
monsoon trough will support fresh to near gale-force northerly 
gap winds and moderate to rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through the end of the week. Winds in Tehuantepec will pulse to 
gale-force tonight and Wed night. Seas will peak around 11 ft 
(3.5 M) with the strongest winds. Conditions will improve by the
weekend.

Northern Waters Gale Warning: A cold front extends from low 
pressure north of the area near 35N127W to 30N127W to 19N139W. 
Strong to locally gale-force winds are in the vicinity of the 
front in the northern waters, and will continue this evening 
mainly north of 29N. Winds will diminish below gale-force during
the overnight hours. Seas will build to near 12 ft (3.5 M) with 
this system early tonight.

A second low, currently well north of the area, will swing by
just north of our waters Wed into Thu, dragging another cold
front across the northern waters. Gale force winds south of the 
low will impact the northern waters, mainly N of 29N Wed into Wed
evening. The low will shift northward, with gale force winds 
shifting N of the area late Wed night. The low will then weaken 
Thu into Fri, with winds over the discussion area diminishing 
below strong speeds Thu night. This system will generate a new 
set of large NW swell, which will reinforce the very rough seas 
generated from the first gale force system. Combined seas of 12 
to 18 ft (3.5-5.5 M) will spread over the northern waters, 
covering much of the waters N of 24N and W of 125W by Thu before 
starting to subside. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 06N90W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ stretches from 06N100W to 08N111W and then from 09N117W to 
09N132W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 
15N and between 105W and 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on a
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an eastward-moving cold 
front is located several hundred miles west of Guadalupe Island.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted
in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, especially west
of Guadalupe Island. A weak pressure gradient dominates the
remainder of the basin, resulting in light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas over much of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a cold 
front will approach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte,
supporting fresh to strong southerly winds tonight into Wed. 
Northwest swell will propagate into the waters north of Punta 
Eugenia tonight into Wed. A reinforcing swell will spread rough 
seas across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula 
the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to locally strong 
southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California 
Wed night into Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected in
the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night into the
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A 1027 mb high pressure system over the southern United States
and the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong easterly
trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downstream to
89W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
norther winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough 
will support pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds 
in the Gulf of Papagayo over the next several days. Mainly gentle
to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama 
during the period, occasionally reaching fresh speeds at night. 
Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
Gale Warning in the northern waters.

The strong to gale-force winds and rough seas due to the tight 
pressure gradient between a cold front over the northern waters 
and high pressure well to the NW of our area dominate dominate
much of the tropical eastern Pacific north of 24N. Please read
the Special Feature section for more information.

Elsewhere, a surface trough in the trade waters along 113W is
producing a few showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are also present east of this
boundary. Farther east, moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of 10N and east of 102W due to
the gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the remainder
of the area, winds are moderate or weaker along with moderate 
seas.

For the forecast, aside from the gale warning discussed above,
the fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas due to the
trough in the trades waters will diminish Wed. Elsewhere, winds 
will be moderate or weaker through the period. Large NW swell 
generated from the two gale force systems will spread rough seas 
SE across the discussion waters. Seas greater than 8 ft will 
cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W on Sat before 
seas start to subside. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may
develop late this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens
between the ridge and another surface trough.

$$
Delgado