000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050857
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 21.4N 119.7W at 05/0900 UTC,
moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100
kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is present from 17N to 24N and between 115W 
and 123W. A general NW motion is expected to continue for the next
few days. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue for 
the next several days. Swells generated by Marie will continue to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja 
California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next few 
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
 
A tropical wave is along 106W, extending from SW Mexico to 04N, 
moving west at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough 
axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 12N94W to 12N110W and
then continues from 12N123W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 15N
and east of 117W and from 07N to 14N and west of 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie to the offshore waters
of Baja California, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are evident across the remaining offshore waters 
of Mexico.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 21.4N 119.7W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 970 mb. Marie will move to 22.1N 120.5W this afternoon, 22.9N 
121.5W Sun morning, 23.6N 122.4W Sun afternoon, weaken to a 
tropical storm near 24.3N 123.4W Mon morning, 24.9N 124.5W Mon 
afternoon, and 25.7N 125.8W Tue morning. Marie will change little
in intensity as it moves to the 28.2N 127.6W early Wed. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to develop in 
the offshore waters of Baja California and N Gulf of California early
next week as Marie moves away. Looking ahead, the next gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of next 
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports 
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft across
the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther south, moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found south of 04N. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters off 
Central America and Colombia, producing gusty winds and higher 
seas. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western
Atlantic will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo 
into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient is expected to 
tighten resulting in strong gap winds and locally rough seas.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are 
expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
over the next several days, decreasing some Sun and Mon. 
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about
Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Aside from the impact of Hurricane Marie in the NE waters, fresh
to strong cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are 
occurring from 18N to 28N and west of 136W associated with the 
outer eastern quadrant of Hurricane Karina that continues to move
away from the eastern Pacific basin. Meanwhile in the eastern 
waters, a cross equatorial southerly swell is producing seas to 
8 ft south of 08N and between 91W and 112W. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds with seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent across the 
remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 21.4N 119.7W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 970 mb. Marie will move to 22.1N 120.5W this afternoon, 22.9N 
121.5W Sun morning, 23.6N 122.4W Sun afternoon, weaken to a 
tropical storm near 24.3N 123.4W Mon morning, 24.9N 124.5W Mon 
afternoon, and 25.7N 125.8W Tue morning. Marie will change little
in intensity as it moves to the 28.2N 127.6W early Wed.

The cross equatorial southerly swell region west of the Galapagos
Islands is expected to diminish below 8 ft tonight. Meanwhile, 
an area of low pressure may develop well offshore of southwestern
Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and a 
tropical depression could form around the middle of next week 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system 
has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. 

$$
Delgado