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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 240910

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N126.5W continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the north side
of the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 12N to 15.5N between 125W and 133W. Latest ASCAT data
shows mainly fresh winds on the north side of the low. 
Environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional 
development, and this system could become a tropical depression 
this weekend or early next week before it reaches cooler waters 
while moving westward at 10-15 kt. The disturbance has a medium 
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. 
Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are likely within 120 
nm north of this low pressure area as it continues west over the 
next several days.


A tropical wave is along 107W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 12N 
between 104W and 112W. 

Another tropical wave is near 116.5W, from 04N to 15N, moving 
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to
14N between 112W and 122W.


The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 07N78W to 08N95W to 
10N110W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N127W to 11N140W. In 
addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Waves section, 
scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N east of 
87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15.5N 
between 125W and 133W.


Strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
This is related to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and
lower pressure south of the area, with seas estimated to be 7 to
9 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 4 to 6 ft seas 
are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW
swell. Farther north, mainly moderate NW winds prevail across 
the waters off Baja California Norte, between weak high pressure 
west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, 
along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds and slight seas are 
noted over the northern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong N winds will continue across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region through early this morning, diminishing to 
fresh to strong late this morning. These winds will diminish to 
moderate to fresh Sun. Moderate southerly flow over the northern 
Gulf of California will briefly become moderate to locally fresh 
this evening before diminishing. Light to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through mid week. 


High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE
to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas 6 to 7 ft. Moderate
to fresh SW to W winds prevail just south of the monsoon trough,
offshore of Panama and Colombia, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds prevail, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, 
primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows 
clusters of strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will 
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the 
Papagayo region through this morning. Fresh SW winds surging 
south of the monsoon trough into the waters offshore of Colombia,
western Panama and Costa Rica will persist through Sun night. 
Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate 
southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of 
Ecuador through this weekend. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms 
will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through 
this weekend.


See the Special Features section above for information on the
1009 mb low pressure near 13N126.5W.

Elsewhere, fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the
monsoon trough to 24N between 125W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 
prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger 
to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine 
conditions expected north of the convergence zone.