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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



131 
AXPZ20 KNHC 261557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N109W to 13N136W. 
The ITCZ extends from 13N136W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 89W and 
106W, and from 09N to 12N between 112W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer data depicted fresh NE winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja 
California Norte. Moderate NW winds are offshore Cabo Corrientes.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in 
S-SW swell, except NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and 
1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate NW winds will continue to dominate 
the Baja California Norte offshore waters through mid-week, 
and fresh offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh N to NE winds 
will continue to pulse at night in the region of Tehuantepec, 
increasing to strong speeds Tue night and continuing through the 
week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough south of 05N or across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands 
offshore waters, with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range, except 4-7 ft
offshore Colombia. North of 05N, winds are mainly light to gentle,
with seas of 5-6 ft in S-SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are 
noted along the coast and just offshore from Colombia northward.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue, while 
southerly swell continues to propagate across the region. Winds 
will diminish to gentle to moderate by the middle of the week,
then back to moderate to fresh for the end of the week. Seas to 
8 ft are expected through the middle of the week in southerly 
swell. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 1010 mb remnant low of Newton is located near 17N119W with  
scattered moderate within 60 nm of the center. Winds are expected
to be in the 20-25 kt range today with seas to 7 ft. A surface
trough extends W of the previously mentioned low, extending from
18N130W to 23N137W. Moderate winds and seas to 6 ft are near 
this feature, mainly north of 20N. Weak high pressure is 
elsewhere north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas 
in SE-S swell prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, 
except mixed northerly and southerly swell north of 20N. 

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft in 
southerly swell are south of the monsoon trough to the Equator 
east of 110W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6-7 ft seas 
are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough, except to 8 ft along 
03.4S. 

For the forecast, the remnant low of Newton will dissipate to a
trough within the next couple of days with associated winds and 
seas diminishing and subsiding. High pressure will dominate the 
northern waters through the week. Pulses of cross-equatorial 
southerly swell will propagate across the forecast waters east of
120W, and maintain seas ranging from 7-10 ft south of 10N 
through Tue night, along with moderate to fresh southerly winds. 
Fairly tranquil marine conditions may prevail across the open 
waters by the end of the week.

$$
ERA