AXPZ20 KNHC 072118
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The first tropical wave of the season in the eastern Pacific
region is analyzed along 79W. The wave extends from the SW
Caribbean near 14N79W across Panama into the offshore waters of
Colombia. The wave is generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area, including the Gulf of Panama.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W
westward across Costa Rica to 11N92W to 08N105W to 10N122W. The
ITCZ continues to 10N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 10N E of 90W
to the coast of Colombia. Similar convective activity is also
noted from 08N to 11N between 90W and 94W, and from 05N to 09N
between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is near
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure continues to dominates the waters W of Baja
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the
exception of fresh to strong winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas
are 6-7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Moderate S to SW winds are
over the northern section of the Gulf of California along with
seas of 2-4 ft. In the central part of the Gulf, light and
variable winds prevail while a recent scatterometer pass
indicates moderate to locally fresh SE to S wind near to the
entrance of the Gulf with seas in the 5-7 ft range based on
altimeter data. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across
the Mexican offshore waters between Jalisco and Guerrero. Winds
are light and variable across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and
Chiapas, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 6-8 ft are in
this area due to S to SW long-period swell.
For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the
waters W of Baja California through the rest of the week
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and occasionally fresh
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, especially at
night. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo
San Lucas at night through the next few nights. Gentle to moderate
W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change
little through the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW
winds may return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle W to NW winds are over the offshore forecast
waters of Central America and Colombia, while gentle to locally
moderate southerly winds are noted S of about 06N, and between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas have subsided to 4-6 ft
over these waters.
For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the
forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the
offshore waters through the forecast period. Additional pulses
of SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands on Fri, building seas to 5-7 ft. The general
synoptic scale pattern could be setting up to favor increased
convection over the region starting late week and through the
weekend. In fact, computer models suggest abundant tropical
moisture across much of Central America and western Colombia
under a southwesterly wind flow.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge, anchored by high pressure of 1020 mb located near
30N140W, dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W.
Its associated gradient is allowing for a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N
and S long- period swell. An area of long-period N swell, with
seas in the 8-9 ft range is observed across the N central waters
N of 24N between 120W-135W based on recent altimeter data.
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to be
in control of the weather pattern across the region the remainder
of the week. The N swell over the N central waters will decay by
early this evening allowing for seas there to drop below 8 ft.
Seas are expected to build to 8 ft over a small area in the far
western part of the discussion area on Fri from about 10N to 13N
and W of 135W as long-period N swell combines with wind generated
seas under freshening NE trade winds there, and as a surface
trough shifts westward along the deep tropics near 128W at that
time. A cold front is expected to approach the northwest corner
of the forecast area by early Fri morning, then reach from near
30N134W to 28N140W by Fri evening, and from 30N130W to 26N140W on
Sat. Latest model guidance depicts moderate to fresh N to NE
winds behind the front with seas building to 6-7 ft.