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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142134
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09N83W to
07N98W. The ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 07N123W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
03N to 09N between 80W and 86W. This convective activity is now
affecting western Panama and parts of Costa Rica. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 04N to 10N 
between 90W and 108W, from 04N to 09N between 115W and 120W, and
within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 120W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
and extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf 
of California is supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate 
northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere across the open offshore
waters south of Baja. NW swell off Baja California Norte will 
slowly subside to 4-6 ft by Thu night. Winds will increase slightly
N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri and Sat as the high pressure shifts 
southward to near 31N.

Gulf of California: Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of California over the next several days, with 
the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the northern part
of the Gulf tonight and Thu as a weak low pressure moves across
the area. Increasing westerly winds of 20-25 kt are expected 
over northern Mexico and E of the Sierra Madre Occidental this 
evening, and again Thu evening. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly gentle W-NW winds will prevail across
the Tehuantepec region this week. The GFS Model suggests a weak 
and brief gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night 
into Mon as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.
The forecast currently calls for 20-25 kt northerly winds and 
seas in the 4-6 ft range.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, except
for fresh to locally strong offshore gap winds across the 
Papagayo region through early Thu morning with seas of 6-7 ft. 
Little change in wind conditions are expected through through 
Fri. Moderate sized SW swell moving into the regional waters will
dominate the offshore waters through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N of
15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this system and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
NE-E winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. A recent
scatterometer pass hints the presence of a surface trough extending
from 22N135W to 16N140W. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are noted E 
of the trough axis to about 135W. Seas are forecast to build to
near 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
are expected with seas in the 6-7 ft range across the tradewind 
belt south of 15N. High pressure will sink southward to along 
31N late Thu through Fri. This will tighten the pressure gradient
and freshen winds north of the ITCZ Fri into the weekend. 

Looking ahead, a monsoon trough-like is forecast to develop E of
100W Fri through Sun, with an embedded weak surface low near
08N90W.

$$
GR