000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051419
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing 
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- 
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation 
developing across Central America starting today and lasting 
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected 
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation 
occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your 
local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather 
Prediction Center for more details.

Low pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure
offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that have not become any better organized over
the past day. Gradual development of this system is possible 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could 
form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the 
Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system 
could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America 
through this weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer 
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across the border of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica to near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to broad
1008 mb low pressure at 10N91W to 07N101W to 1011 mb low 
pressure at 08N112W to 04N122W to 05N128W. The ITCZ extends from
05N128W to 09N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 15N between 77W and 93W,
from 03.4S to 12N between 103W and 122W, and within 330 nm NE of
the ITCZ between 130W and 140W. Similar convection is from 01N to
04N between 130W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are present in the offshore 
waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high 
pressure N of the region. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. 
Moderate to fresh gap winds have developed in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, light
to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, 
mixed with NW swell west of 105W, and except for the Gulf of 
California, where slight seas dominate.

For the forecast, large NW swell will impact the Baja waters 
through tonight, with reinforcing NW swell arriving Fri and 
lingering into early Sun. Fresh winds will pulse in the northern 
Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri and 
continue through the weekend, locally strong in the northern Gulf
of California. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap 
winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, then 
increase Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of 
America, with gales possible Mon night. Expect rough seas with 
these winds. Another set of large and rough NW swell is likely to
approach Baja California Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on low
pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical 
development as well as a heavy rainfall threat over portions of 
Central America.

A zone of moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds is noted ESE of 
this low. Otherwise, winds are gentle to moderate with moderate 
seas.

For the forecast, other than the low pressure area with tropical
cyclone formation potential, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the
north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to 
widespread fresh NE to E winds across waters N of the monsoon 
trough and west of 125W, locally strong from 11N to 24N to the W
of 130W. Long period NW swell and wind-waves are combining to 
create rough seas over the same area. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds prevail, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the
west-central waters through the end of the week, locally strong
into the weekend until the gradient relaxes some. Reinforcing NW
swell will start to arrive today, keeping seas rough. Additional
NW swell will keep moving in through the weekend and into early 
next week. Looking ahead, merging NW and SE swell is likely to 
produce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator by late Fri into the 
weekend, possibly lingering into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky