000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250800
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure N of the region
will force gale-force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning along with rough seas. Strong winds and
moderate seas will then continue into the weekend.

Northern Waters Significant Swell: Large NW swell generated by a
gale-force low pressure centered N of the area is bringing very
rough seas to waters N of 25N and W of 125W, with seas of up to
17 ft near 30N135W. This swell will continue propagating into 
the region through tonight, with rough seas reaching as far S as 
23N and as far E as 120W, before gradually decaying on Fri. Rough
seas of 8 to 11 ft are likely to prevail into the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N81W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N95W to 09N123W to beyond 08N140W. No significant
convection is noted near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a 
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh S winds are ongoing in
the northern Gulf of California. Also, fresh SW winds are
occurring E of a stationary front well offshore Baja Norte.
Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker. Rough seas in NW swell
are ongoing well offshore Baja California Norte, elsewhere slight
to moderate seas prevail.  

For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, NW swell 
over the waters north of Punta Eugenia will be reinforced by a 
new set of NW swell tonight into Fri, spreading rough seas 
southward across the offshore waters of the Baja California 
peninsula. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are likely to develop
in the Gulf of California Sun into Mon as high pressure builds
southward toward toward the region.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Papagayo region. 
Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere N of 05N. Gentle to moderate winds are
found south of 05N. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except 
reaching 6 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough 
will support pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Mainly 
gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama
during the period. Gentle or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
significant swell impacting much of the northern waters.

A cold front has stalled from 30N117W to 20N128W. Convection
previously associated with this feature has diminished overnight.
Another cold front is noted from 30N128W to 27N140W. E of this
front, fresh to strong SW winds are ongoing, with fresh to strong
W to NW winds behind it. A mid-level trough along 115W is
inducing scattered moderate convection just SW of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Rough seas encompass waters NW of a line 
from 28N119W to 15N140W. Elsewhere across the waters, generally 
moderate or weaker trades dominate, with moderate seas. 

$$
Konarik