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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 290832

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting minimal gale 
conditions over Tehuantepec, with peak seas currently near 13 
ft. The area of high pressure has started to weaken, and will
shift eastward today. This will loosen the pressure gradient,
diminishing the gale- force winds this morning. Winds will
further decrease through the day, diminishing to 20 kt or less by
early Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N97W to 08N115W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N E of 91W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 100W and 


Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale-force gap wind event. Strong N to NE winds currently extend
downwind of Tehuantepec to near 13N, with seas 8 to 13 ft in 
this area.

Elsewhere, moderate N-NW winds are noted N of 17N, including the
southern half of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds 
are elsewhere over the discussion waters. NW swell continues to 
subside across the Baja waters, where seas are in the 5-7 ft
range, except 8 to 9 ft from 21N to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
Seas of 2-3 ft are noted over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force gap winds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight, with current gale- 
force winds expected to continue over these waters through early 
today. High pressure will build across the region from the NW, 
with a return to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the 
Baja offshore waters late today through the end of the week. 
Strong westerly gap winds are expected across the Gulf of 
California tonight. 


Fresh to strong NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region, with
the fresh winds extending to near 90W. Light to gentle offshore 
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds are noted S of 05N. Gentle to 
moderate northerly winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. 
Seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the area waters. A cluster of 
strong thunderstorms persists across the near and offshore waters
south of Panama and eastern Costa Rica, and are currently E of 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu 
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate to locally 
fresh S to SW winds will continue between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands through midday before diminishing. Moderate W 
to NW swell across the regional waters will continue through Thu.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to persist 
across the near and offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica 


Weak high pressure prevails across the northern waters, to the
southeast of a weakening cold front that extends from 30N127W to
28N140W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and the remnant trough of Ramon near 22N129W to 14N129W, as well
as the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally
fresh winds N of the the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 24N and west of 
110W. Light to gentle winds are N of 24N. Gentle to moderate 
winds are found S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates 
the discussion waters W of 100W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range.
Seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the NW swell will subside today. High pressure
to the northwest will begin to build across the region by Thu 
and freshen NE to E winds south of 25N into the weekend. 
Associated seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft and potentially 
higher to the S of 25N Fri night into Sat.