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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242155
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 2100 UTC Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 16.9N 116.4W 
or about 510 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja 
California, moving NNW at 10 kt. The minimum central pressure is 
1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 40 kt with gusts to 50 
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in satellite 
imagery occurring in bands within 30 nm across the NW and 180 nm 
across the SE semicircles. Daniel is expected to remain well 
offshore as it continues moving NNW this evening then bends more 
toward the NW this evening through Mon. There is some 
opportunity for Daniel to strengthen slightly overnight, before 
it begins to move over cooler waters and into a more stable 
environment Mon and Tue, which in induce a gradual weakening 
trend. The cyclone will likely became a remnant low by the 
middle of the week. See the NHC Forecast/Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N91W to low pressure 
near 15.5N105W 1010 mb. The ITCZ extends from 12N123W TO 11N132W 
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 04N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 106W, WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 128W, AND FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND 
139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less, prevail 
across the offshore waters west of Baja California this 
afternoon, due to a low level trough along about 119W drifting 
westward and away from the coast. Afternoon observations show 
moderate seabreezes occurring along the coast, and 10-15 kt 
winds blowing cyclonically around Cabo San Lucas and the 
southern tip of the peninsula. Winds are expected to remain 
variable 10 kt or less offshore this evening while sea breezes 
continue through sunset along the coasts. Gentle to moderate NW 
winds are then expected to develop over the next few days as the 
low level trough weakens and shifts farther NW. Southerly winds 
inside the northern Gulf of California were captured by a midday 
ASCAT pass, and were generally 15-20 kt north of 26N. Seas in 
the region of strongest winds remain near 6 ft while 2-4 ft seas 
are south of 27N. Winds and seas will subside slightly tonight, 
before a weak pressure pattern and variable winds prevail Mon 
through Wed.   

Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell has peaked 
across the regional waters today from central Baja California to 
Central America. Seas of 5-8 ft from the mouth of the Gulf of 
California to increase to 7-8 ft offshore of southern Mexico to 
the Tehuantepec region, and will begin to slowly subside tonight 
through Mon.   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next 
several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the 
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected 
south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell 
has peaked across the waters today, with seas of 7-9 ft, and 
will begin gradually subside this evening through Mon.

A tropical wave across Central America along about 92W will 
continue a westward track through Wed maintaining active 
convection in the region during this time.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to 
near 125W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ, 
moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging 
between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift NW 
and reorganize, while the weak trough offshore of Baja 
California drifts west to near 120W through Mon. This will 
gradually freshen winds N of 25N and to the west of 125W, 
producing NE winds of 15-25 kt, and building seas of 7-10 ft 
across the northern waters.

Typical northerly swell generated offshore of California is 
propagating into the northern waters today, and has built seas 
modestly to 9 ft north of 27N between 121W and 132W. The cross-
equatorial southerly swell is also moving through the tropical 
waters south of 20N and west of 120W and will maintain seas 5-7 
ft there through Mon.

A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near 15.5N105W, and 
generating scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 
120 nm north and 180 nm south of the center. Global models 
indicate that this low will linger across this area through at 
least Mon and continue to generate active convection. 

$$
Stripling