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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1852 UTC Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N74W to 06N82W to 07N91W to 
05N101W. The ITCZ continues from 05N101W to 03N117W to 06N136W to
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is present from 07N to 11N between 128W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

As of 1800 UTC, a cold front passes over the southern Gulf of 
California from 28N110W to 25N111W. The front has begun to weaken
and will dissipate tonight as it continues E over the southern 
Gulf of California and interior NW Mexico. Light to moderate 
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft will generally prevail in the Gulf of
California tonight through Thu. Another cold front will head 
toward northern Baja on Thu evening. SW to W winds will develop 
ahead of the front over the Gulf of california N of 30N Thu night
and Fri morning, then subside as the front continues on toward 
the SE and weakens. High pressure centered N of the discussion 
area will generate moderate NW to N winds over the waters W of 
the Baja Peninsula tonight, accompanied by NW swell maintaining 
seas of 8 to 12 ft N of 24N. This area of 8-ft seas will continue
to spread SE across the offshore waters W of Baja through Wed 
with seas measuring 8-10 ft. The area of 8 ft seas will begin to 
decay but reach as far SE as the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed 
night. Strong high pressure building to the N of the discussion 
area will generate a large area of fresh to strong winds from 12N
to 23N W of 115W Wed night through Fri. This will maintain an 
area of corresponding seas running between 8 and 12 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected
over the next couple of days, with seas generally remaining
between 3 and 5 ft. Northerly winds will briefly increase to 
20-25 kt late Thu night and Fri morning, with seas peaking around
8 ft during this brief gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to between 90W and 92W 
through Sun morning, with seas building to 9 ft during the 
overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N winds are generally expected
across the western Gulf of Panama through Sat.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong 1036 mb high pressure centered well N of the area near 
36N140W ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger
1042 mb high pres arriving near 45N145W by Thu evening. The 
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated 
with the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across 
the tropical waters W of 115W.

Long period NW swell dominates waters roughly to the N of 13N 
and W of 110W, while cross equatorial SW swell is affecting the 
remainder of the forecast area, reaching the coast of Mexico S of
Cabo Corrientes, and the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 ft 
or greater will envelop the waters N of 08N W of 110W by Thu 
evening. Strong high pres building to the N of the discussion
area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 12 ft from
12N to 20N W of 120W Fri and Fri night. This area will slowly
shift W on Sat and Sun.

$$
CAM