AXPZ20 KNHC 270335
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
304 UTC Mon Jan 27 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N87W to 04N96W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N96W to 07N110W to 07N130W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 08N E of 99W, and
from 02N to 10N W of 117W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Long period NW swell, with period ranging between 15-21 seconds,
will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters
of western Mexico and Baja California through the end of the
upcoming week. Peak seas associated to this swell event are
near 9 ft off the coast of Baja California, with seas of 8 ft
reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. A new set of NW swell will
reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte early on Mon,
with seas peaking near 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia through Mon
evening. This reinforcing swell will maintain seas in the 8-11 ft
range across the waters W of the Baja peninsula through Fri.
A ridge W of the Baja California peninsula and a weak pressure
gradient across the region continue to support gentle to moderate
NW winds over the offshores of Baja California Norte and light to
gentle winds elsewhere off the coast of Mexico, including the Gulf
of California. High pressure building over the Great Basin
along with the strengthening of the ridge W of Baja will tighten
the pressure gradient over the area early on Mon. This will
result in moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte,
increasing to fresh to strong Wed through early Thu. NW winds
will also increase to fresh to strong along the central and
southern waters of the Gulf of California Mon night through Tue
Another center of high pressure will build over the Great Basin
by the middle of the week, which will result in fresh to near
gale force NW winds over the northern Gulf of California Wed
night through Thu evening. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft
during this period.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will dominate the Papagayo
region through Fri with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds in
the Gulf of Panama will prevail through early Mon, then will
diminish to gentle to moderate through late Thu before increasing
again to fresh on Fri.
Outside of the Papagayo and Panama regions, seas will generally
be 6 ft or less across much of the forecast waters. SW swell will
help to build seas to near 7 ft between the Galapagos Islands
and Ecuador Wed night into Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high near 31N132W dominates
the waters N of 15N W of 108W. The high will strengthen to near
1031 mb on Mon, which will tighten the pressure gradient over
the forecast waters, thus resulting in fresh to strong
tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. The strong ridge
will stay nearly stationary, which will maintain these conditions
Long period NW swell propagating across the forecast area is
producing seas of 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast
waters N of the Equator and W of 110W. Reinforcing swell will
maintain high seas to 11 ft through Fri.