000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051543
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 110W, moving W at 10-15W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 103W 
and 112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07N96W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N96W to 08N109W, then resumes W of the tropical
wave near 08N113W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 13N and E of 92W, and from 00N to 12N and W of
115W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California
waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressure over Mexico are supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with 5-7 ft seas in 
merging NW and SW swell, except for light winds and seas 1 to 3 
ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will strengthens modestly 
across the area tonight through Tue night, leading to moderate to
fresh winds across the Baja California waters. Moderate gap 
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through 
tonight, then diminish through Mon. Cross-equatorial SW swell 
will reach the waters off southern Mexico on Mon, building seas 
to around 7 ft. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern 
Gulf of California Tue and Wed becoming strong on Thu. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 06N and across 
Panama, and Costa Rica, and extend northward into the SW 
Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Fresh to  
strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and 
extends offshore to 92W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with 
seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, the active thunderstorms across the eastern
waters is expected to shift northward today and into the SW 
Caribbean. Fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region 
will pulse to strong each night through midweek leading to rough
seas. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will move into the 
waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through 
Tue, building seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the
remaining waters farther N. The combination of the southerly 
swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will 
allow combined seas to build to 8 ft offshore of northern Central
America Tue through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the
area waters tonight, extending southeastward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and the remnant low of Douglas, now a 1012 mb low near 
25N130W, is producing fresh to strong winds around the low, from
22N to 28N between 128W and 133W. Peak seas are still to 10 ft 
across the NW quadrant of this low. The ridge draping over this 
low pressure area continues to support gentle to moderate NE to 
E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W, with 6-8 ft seas
in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds 
and 6-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching 
as far west as 125W, from 07N to 15N. Gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft there in SW 
swell. Active thunderstorms continue about the tropical wave 
along 109W, between 100W and 118W.

For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas 
will gradually diminish through tonight as the remnant low moves
NW, weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift 
southwestward and generally persist across the region through 
early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
farther south into the tropics. A tropical wave located several 
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is 
producing disorganized shower activity. This activity will 
continue to follow the wave as it moves W across the tropical 
Pacific.

$$
ERA