AXPZ20 KNHC 242155
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 24 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
At 2100 UTC Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 16.9N 116.4W
or about 510 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California, moving NNW at 10 kt. The minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in satellite
imagery occurring in bands within 30 nm across the NW and 180 nm
across the SE semicircles. Daniel is expected to remain well
offshore as it continues moving NNW this evening then bends more
toward the NW this evening through Mon. There is some
opportunity for Daniel to strengthen slightly overnight, before
it begins to move over cooler waters and into a more stable
environment Mon and Tue, which in induce a gradual weakening
trend. The cyclone will likely became a remnant low by the
middle of the week. See the NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC for further details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N91W to low pressure
near 15.5N105W 1010 mb. The ITCZ extends from 12N123W TO 11N132W
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 79W AND 106W, WITHIN 180 NM S OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 128W, AND FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 128W AND
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less, prevail
across the offshore waters west of Baja California this
afternoon, due to a low level trough along about 119W drifting
westward and away from the coast. Afternoon observations show
moderate seabreezes occurring along the coast, and 10-15 kt
winds blowing cyclonically around Cabo San Lucas and the
southern tip of the peninsula. Winds are expected to remain
variable 10 kt or less offshore this evening while sea breezes
continue through sunset along the coasts. Gentle to moderate NW
winds are then expected to develop over the next few days as the
low level trough weakens and shifts farther NW. Southerly winds
inside the northern Gulf of California were captured by a midday
ASCAT pass, and were generally 15-20 kt north of 26N. Seas in
the region of strongest winds remain near 6 ft while 2-4 ft seas
are south of 27N. Winds and seas will subside slightly tonight,
before a weak pressure pattern and variable winds prevail Mon
Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell has peaked
across the regional waters today from central Baja California to
Central America. Seas of 5-8 ft from the mouth of the Gulf of
California to increase to 7-8 ft offshore of southern Mexico to
the Tehuantepec region, and will begin to slowly subside tonight
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next
several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the
monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected
south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell
has peaked across the waters today, with seas of 7-9 ft, and
will begin gradually subside this evening through Mon.
A tropical wave across Central America along about 92W will
continue a westward track through Wed maintaining active
convection in the region during this time.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to
near 125W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ,
moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging
between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift NW
and reorganize, while the weak trough offshore of Baja
California drifts west to near 120W through Mon. This will
gradually freshen winds N of 25N and to the west of 125W,
producing NE winds of 15-25 kt, and building seas of 7-10 ft
across the northern waters.
Typical northerly swell generated offshore of California is
propagating into the northern waters today, and has built seas
modestly to 9 ft north of 27N between 121W and 132W. The cross-
equatorial southerly swell is also moving through the tropical
waters south of 20N and west of 120W and will maintain seas 5-7
ft there through Mon.
A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near 15.5N105W, and
generating scattered moderate isolated strong convection within
120 nm north and 180 nm south of the center. Global models
indicate that this low will linger across this area through at
least Mon and continue to generate active convection.