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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 161940

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1830 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 07N95W to 09N115W to
07N131W. The ITCZ continues from 07N131W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N
between 77W and 85W, from 07N to 12N between 85W and 94W, from
07N to 10N between 115W and 122W, and from 05N to 12N between 
123W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
07N between 93W and 99W, and from 04N to 08N between 130W and


Fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California 
north of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are west
of Baja California south of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh N
winds are offshore Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to
Oaxaca, as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 
6-8 ft range in NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San
Lazaro, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. 
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. Haze is
reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of California 
southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico, while areas of 
dense fog are noted in early morning visible satellite imagery 
offshore Baja California Norte from Punta Eugenia northward.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail 
west of Baja California through mid-week, with gentle to 
moderate thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow 
will develop in the Gulf of California Tue through Wed. Moderate 
to locally fresh W-NW winds will develop from near Cabo San Lucas
to near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca Wed night through the
end of the week. NW swell will prevail across the waters off 
Baja California Norte through the week, subsiding this weekend. 


Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south 
of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 
the monsoon trough, except moderate offshore southern
Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft in S to SW swell across the
offshore waters south of the monsoon trough, and 4-6 ft north of
the monsoon trough. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia and Panama, with 
isolated to scattered offshore Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Some 
haze has been reported at coastal sights from Nicaragua northward
due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of
the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh 
Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north 
of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate to fresh 
Papagayo and offshore southern Nicaragua through Wed. A moderate
long- period southerly swell will linger through early mid-week,
with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. 

Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure
may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late
this week. This will lift the monsoon trough well north of its 
current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far north 
as the Nicaraguan waters. This will also advect abundant moisture
northward, with an increase in convection gradually lifting 
northward across portions of Central America and across the 
waters west of Central America. 


High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and 
within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally
fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough to 23N and west of 114W, with gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft seas north of 23N and west of 128W
near the high center. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7
ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west 
of 118W. Elsewhere east of 118W, light to gentle to winds are 
noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northern winds will extend from
offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N between
120W and 130W mid-week, along with seas in the 7-10 ft range due
to fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine
conditions and little change are expected across the open waters
through the week.