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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A strong cold front
will move through the northern Gulf of California Mon. Behind the
front, strong to near gale force W winds are expected across the
northern Gulf of California Mon. A localized area of gale force
winds to 35 kt is forecast near the east coast of Baja California
Norte from 29.5N to 30.5N. Winds will diminish below gale Mon
night but remain strong through Tue. Seas will reach 8 to 10 ft
Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front 
will reach Baja California Norte early Mon, with large long- 
period NW swell expected west of Baja California Mon through Tue 
night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of 
Baja California Norte Mon afternoon through Mon night. There is a
significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta 
Eugenia Mon through early Tue. Near gale force NW winds are 
expected in the area, with gales to 35 kt Mon night north of 32N,
offshore the California/Mexico border.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 05N80W to 06N100W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 06N110W to 03N130W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 113W 
and 119W, and from 03N to 14N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The latest ASCAT data show mainly gentle to moderate wind speeds
offshore of Mexico, except for moderate to locally fresh N winds
near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are generally 5 to 6 ft. Off Baja
California Norte, fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected
tonight through Sun morning. Seas will increase to 8 to 11 ft 
offshore Baja California Norte late tonight.

A strong cold front will bring very large swell west of Baja
California Norte Mon-Tue. Near gale force winds are expected both
west and east of Baja California Norte. See the Special Features
section above for details. Winds and seas will diminish Wed.

Late in the week, a gale event is possible in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec beginning on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle winds prevail across most of the regional offshore waters
with seas of 5-6 ft. The exception is the Papagayo region, where
fresh to occasionally strong gap winds are expected through Wed.
Fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama 
tonight through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1037 mb centered northwest of the area near 
37N146W extends a ridge southward to near 15N. The gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N west of 120W. 
Seas in this area are in the 7 to 8 ft range in a mix of N swell 
and NE to E wind waves, which is expected to persist through the 
weekend.

The next significant north to northwest swell event is expected 
to arrive late tonight, followed by large, long-period NW swell 
arriving on Mon, associated with a cold front moving into Baja 
California Norte. This swell will spread southward across much of
the forecast area north of 10N and west of 110W. Highest seas 
are expected Mon through Tue west of Baja California.

$$
Hagen