AXPZ20 KNHC 240910
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N126.5W continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the north side
of the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 12N to 15.5N between 125W and 133W. Latest ASCAT data
shows mainly fresh winds on the north side of the low.
Environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
this weekend or early next week before it reaches cooler waters
while moving westward at 10-15 kt. The disturbance has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are likely within 120
nm north of this low pressure area as it continues west over the
next several days.
A tropical wave is along 107W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 12N
between 104W and 112W.
Another tropical wave is near 116.5W, from 04N to 15N, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to
14N between 112W and 122W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 07N78W to 08N95W to
10N110W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N127W to 11N140W. In
addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N east of
87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15.5N
between 125W and 133W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
This is related to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and
lower pressure south of the area, with seas estimated to be 7 to
9 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 4 to 6 ft seas
are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW
swell. Farther north, mainly moderate NW winds prevail across
the waters off Baja California Norte, between weak high pressure
west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico,
along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds and slight seas are
noted over the northern Gulf of California.
For the forecast, strong N winds will continue across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region through early this morning, diminishing to
fresh to strong late this morning. These winds will diminish to
moderate to fresh Sun. Moderate southerly flow over the northern
Gulf of California will briefly become moderate to locally fresh
this evening before diminishing. Light to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere through mid week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA,
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE
to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas 6 to 7 ft. Moderate
to fresh SW to W winds prevail just south of the monsoon trough,
offshore of Panama and Colombia, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds prevail, with seas of 5 to 7 ft,
primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows
clusters of strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica.
For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will
continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the
Papagayo region through this morning. Fresh SW winds surging
south of the monsoon trough into the waters offshore of Colombia,
western Panama and Costa Rica will persist through Sun night.
Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate
southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of
Ecuador through this weekend. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms
will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See the Special Features section above for information on the
1009 mb low pressure near 13N126.5W.
Elsewhere, fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the
monsoon trough to 24N between 125W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger
to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine
conditions expected north of the convergence zone.