000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072118
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season in the eastern Pacific 
region is analyzed along 79W. The wave extends from the SW 
Caribbean near 14N79W across Panama into the offshore waters of 
Colombia. The wave is generating scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across the area, including the Gulf of Panama.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W 
westward across Costa Rica to 11N92W to 08N105W to 10N122W. The 
ITCZ continues to 10N122W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 10N E of 90W 
to the coast of Colombia. Similar convective activity is also 
noted from 08N to 11N between 90W and 94W, and from 05N to 09N 
between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is near
07N140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to dominates the waters W of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the
exception of fresh to strong winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas 
are 6-7 ft in mixed S and NW swell. Moderate S to SW winds are 
over the northern section of the Gulf of California along with 
seas of 2-4 ft. In the central part of the Gulf, light and 
variable winds prevail while a recent scatterometer pass 
indicates moderate to locally fresh SE to S wind near to the 
entrance of the Gulf with seas in the 5-7 ft range based on 
altimeter data. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across 
the Mexican offshore waters between Jalisco and Guerrero. Winds 
are light and variable across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and 
Chiapas, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 6-8 ft are in
this area due to S to SW long-period swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the
waters W of Baja California through the rest of the week 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and occasionally fresh 
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, especially at
night. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo 
San Lucas at night through the next few nights. Gentle to moderate
W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change 
little through the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW
winds may return to the northern Gulf of California this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle W to NW winds are over the offshore forecast 
waters of Central America and Colombia, while gentle to locally 
moderate southerly winds are noted S of about 06N, and between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas have subsided to 4-6 ft 
over these waters. 

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for moderate or weaker winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Additional pulses 
of SW swell will reach the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands on Fri, building seas to 5-7 ft. The general 
synoptic scale pattern could be setting up to favor increased 
convection over the region starting late week and through the 
weekend. In fact, computer models suggest abundant tropical 
moisture across much of Central America and western Colombia 
under a southwesterly wind flow.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge, anchored by high pressure of 1020 mb located near
30N140W, dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. 
Its associated gradient is allowing for a gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow. Seas are generally 5-7 ft due to a mix of N 
and S long- period swell. An area of long-period N swell, with
seas in the 8-9 ft range is observed across the N central waters
N of 24N between 120W-135W based on recent altimeter data. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to be 
in control of the weather pattern across the region the remainder
of the week. The N swell over the N central waters will decay by
early this evening allowing for seas there to drop below 8 ft. 
Seas are expected to build to 8 ft over a small area in the far 
western part of the discussion area on Fri from about 10N to 13N
and W of 135W as long-period N swell combines with wind generated
seas under freshening NE trade winds there, and as a surface 
trough shifts westward along the deep tropics near 128W at that 
time. A cold front is expected to approach the northwest corner 
of the forecast area by early Fri morning, then reach from near 
30N134W to 28N140W by Fri evening, and from 30N130W to 26N140W on 
Sat. Latest model guidance depicts moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds behind the front with seas building to 6-7 ft.

$$
GR