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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 100958

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0950 UTC.


A tropical wave is along 32W/33W, extending from 04N to 19N and  
moving westward about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 16N between 24W and 41W. Some gradual development of 
this system is possible over the next few days. However, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend.

A tropical wave is along 48W, extending from 04N to 20N, and moving
west about 15 kt. No significant deep convection is associated
with this wave.

A tropical wave is along 61W, extending S of 19N, and moving 
westward at 15-20 knots. There is no convection associated with 
this wave. 

A tropical wave is along 84W, extending S of 20N, and moving 
westward at 15 knots. Scattered to isolated showers and tstms are
occuring across the NW Caribbean. 


The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 12N33W to 12N52W. The 
ITCZ continues from 12N52W to 13N59W. For convection information,
see the tropical waves section. 


A middle-level inverted trough over the central and eastern gulf 
continues to support scattered showers and tstms E of 90W and in 
the Bay of Campeche. The Bermuda/Azores high continues to extend a
ridge SW across Florida and into the western Gulf of Mexico, which
is supporting gentle to locally moderate SE winds and seas to 3 ft
as indicated by recent altimeter data. 

For the forecast, Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant 
feature across the basin through early on Fri. This will result in
mainly gentle to moderate return flow. On Fri, the ridge will 
weaken, and winds will become light to gentle, continuing through 
the remainder forecast period. 


Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean as the Bermuda High remains nearly stationary
N of the area. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted along the
Windward passage with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
easterlies are across the E basin while gentle to moderate trade 
winds are in the NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-6 ft, 7-8 ft and
to 3 ft in the eastern, central and NW Caribbean, respectively. In
terms of convection, a tropical wave moving across Central America
is supporting scattered to isolated showers in the NW basin while
the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is supporting
numerous strong convection in the offshore waters between southern
Panama and Colombia. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered just ENE of Bermuda will
remain nearly stationary through today before weakening. This 
will result in fresh to strong trade winds over the central and 
portions of the SW Caribbean diminishing to moderate to fresh 
speeds tonight into Thu as a tropical wave moves across the 
eastern basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds are 
forecast for the central and eastern Caribbean from Thu night 
through Sun night.


The dominant feature across the subtropical Atlantic waters
continue to be the Bermuda/Azores high, which is supporting
moderate to fresh easterlies in the region W of 55W and S of 25N.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds are across the central Atlantic
while mainly fresh NE winds with seas to 8 ft are over the far NE
Atlantic due to a tighter pressure against lower pressure in NW

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging centered just ENE of 
Bermuda and extending across the region will weaken today, thus 
resulting in fresh to locally strong winds diminishing to moderate
speeds south of 25N. Light to gentle variable winds are expected 
elsewhere through Sat. Otherwise, an area of low pressure 
associated with a strong tropical wave will reach the SE offshore 
waters by Sat night, thus increasing the winds and seas over that 
region for the remainder of the forecast period.