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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



989 
AXNT20 KNHC 161100 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

CORRECTED FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN TO REMNANTS

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN...

The remnants of the center, at 16/0900 UTC, are near 17.3N 
24.1W. This position also is about 80 nm/145 km to the N of The 
Cabo Verde Islands. The remnants are moving NW, or 305 degrees, 
07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 
knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong is within 330 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. No 
hazards are affecting land. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for the 
remnants of FIFTEEN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ 
ADVISORIES for the remnants of FIFTEEN are available via the WMO 
header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The last 
FORECAST/ADVISORY for the remants of T.D. FIFTEEN was done at 
16/0900 UTC by the National Hurricane Center. Additional 
information about the Tropical Depression is able to be found in 
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS that are issued by METEO FRANCE, under the 
WMO HEADER, FQNT50 LFPW.

...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR CENTRAL AMERICA...

A trough of low pressure, that is in southern Mexico and in the 
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, is producing disorganized 
rainshowers and thunderstorms in sections of Mexico from 20N 
southward, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This area 
of weather, and another tropical system that is in the eastern 
Pacific Ocean, are expected to produce heavy rains in parts of 
southern Mexico and Central America during the next couple of 
days. It is possible that the rain may cause flooding and 
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. The area of low 
pressure, that is just to the south of the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, is forecast to move into the SW 
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and turn northward gradually, on 
Friday and Saturday. Gradual development is possible. It is 
possible that a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone may 
form late this week in the western or central Gulf of Mexico, 
while the system is moving generally northeastward. Please, read 
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 10N 
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related 
precipitation is mostly to the east of the tropical wave, 
between 20W and the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 18N 
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is from 190N to 19N between 50W and 
60W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, across the western 
sections of the Dominican Republic, from 21N southward, moving W 
15 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of 
the tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the 
coastal waters/coastal plains of Venezuela and Colombia, 
between 65W and 76W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland, in Africa. The ITCZ is along 
07N26W 04N40W 03N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered to 
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 03N to 09N between 
08W and 15W, from 10N southward between 09W and 32W, and from 
04N to 10N between 38W and 52W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

The stationary front from six hours ago has dissipated. A 
surface trough remains, from Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 28N 
northward from 87W eastward.

A cold front is in Texas, moving eastward with time. The cold 
front is forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico later today.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, 
along 23N92W 20N93W 17N93W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to 
strong from 20N southward from 93W westward. Isolated moderate 
to locally strong elsewhere from 26N southward from 89W 
westward.  

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of 
Mexico.

A broad low pressure area in southern Mexico gradually will 
shift NW through Thursday night. Expect widespread rainshowers 
and thunderstorms across the SW Gulf of Mexico. A cold front 
will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning. The front will 
extend from central Florida to Tampico, Mexico on Thursday 
morning. A second area of low pressure, now just to the south of 
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, will move NE on 
Friday and Saturday. Strong winds and active weather will be 
possible near the low center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about 
the heavy rainfall event, that currently is occurring in Central 
America and the southwest Caribbean Sea.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean 
Sea to the west of the line that runs from the easternmost part 
of Hispaniola to the western sections of Panama.

An upper level trough passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic 
Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 14N73W in the central 
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW 
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 74W 
westward, with an upper level inverted trough. The monsoon 
trough passes through northern sections of Colombia, and across 
Panama and northern parts of Costa Rica. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to strong from 10N between Colombia and 79W. 

Broad low pressure, across Central America, will support 
moderate to fresh SE winds in the NW Caribbean Sea during the 
next several days. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are 
expected elsewhere, across the rest of the basin, through the 
weekend. An active tropical wave will move across the tropical 
Atlantic waters today, across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, 
and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is near 32N61W, to 26N62W, to 22N65W, 
beyond the Mona Passage, and into the Caribbean Sea. A surface 
trough is along 61W/62W, from 20N to 33N. Precipitation: widely 
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N northward between 
50W and the surface trough.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the area through tonight.
A cold front will enter the NW waters on Thursday morning, with 
fresh to near gale force SW winds expected N of 29N ahead of the 
front. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to central Florida
on Thursday night, and move to the east of the area by Saturday.

$$
mt