AXNT20 KNHC 282230
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the Gulf of
Mexico Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N winds. A Gale
Warning has been issued for Wed afternoon and evening offshore the
Texas coast, where frequent gusts to 35 kt are anticipated. As a
result, seas will build to 8 to 10 ft in the NW Gulf, and continue
into Thu. For details on this Gale Warning, please read the
latest Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 06N20W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W
to 02N34W and 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection with 180 nm N
of the monsoon trough between 27W and 43W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from near Naples, Florida, to the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
90 nm behind the front. Convection associated with a stationary
front along the northern Gulf coast has diminished this afternoon.
A 1012 mb low pressure center is noted just SE of the Texas-Mexico
border with a surface trough extending from it northward to the
upper Texas coast and southward to offshore Tampico, Mexico. No
convection is with this features. Another surface through has
also developed from offshore Louisiana SW to 24N93W. Scattered
moderate convection extends within 60 nm on both sides of this
As the frontal boundary is slowing and weakening, generally
moderate E winds dominate both sides of the cold front and much of
the basin. For the SW Gulf extending from the central Bay of
Campeche to Brownsville, Texas, and the NE Gulf from Tampa Bay to
the mouth of the Mississippi River, winds are light to gentle and
variable. Seas throughout the Gulf of Mexico are less than 3 ft.
For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate tonight. High
pressure will follow the front. The next cold front is forecast to
enter the Gulf region on Wed followed by strong to near gale
force northerly winds. This front will reach from northern
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central
Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico on Thu. Strong high pressure
behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night allowing
for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds
across most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
precede the front.
A decent pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the
Subtropical Atlantic and lower pressure in northern South America
and along the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough
is leading to moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the central
and eastern Caribbean. Trades are gentle to moderate in the NW
Caribbean, except locally fresh in the Gulf of Honduras and near
the adjacent Bay Islands.
The monsoon trough extends along 10N from Colombia to Costa Rica,
with light and variable winds to its south. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 13N in the SW Caribbean in association
with this trough. Scattered moderate convection is also impacting
waters near the coast of Venezuela.
Seas in the basin are 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW
For the forecast, high pressure will remain north of the area
through most of the week maintaining moderate to fresh easterly
breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may
pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and in the
Windward Passage Tue through Thu, then become rather persistent
through Fri night, including also in the lee of Cuba as high
pressure strengthens over the mid-Atlantic states.
A weak cold front extends from 31N70W to the southern tip of
Florida. N of 28N, moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring
behind the front, and moderate to fresh SW winds are dominating
ahead of it. To the east, another cold front stretches from 31N38W
to 23N50W, then devolves into a surface trough that continues W to
near 23N67W. Behind the front and trough, there is a relatively
narrow zone of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds that
extends N and W about 120 nm from the boundaries, otherwise winds
both to the N and S are light to gentle. A 1018 mb high pressure
is centered near 30N58W.
To the S, areas S of 21N are dominated by moderate to fresh NE to
E trades. These moderate to fresh trades continue N and E to
beyond 30N along the Africa coast, and some strong winds are
occurring off the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara and in the
vicinity of the Canary Islands.
The only significant convection in the basin is noted from 02N to
15N between 43W and 51W. This activity is associated with a deep
layer trough that extends from near 03N46W up to 23N41W.
Seas in the zone of higher trades winds are 6 to 8 ft. A large
area of long period NW to N swell is producing seas in excess of 8
ft N of 21N between 35W and 60W, with seas over 12 ft being
observed N of 24N between 37W and 55W. The highest seas of 16 to
18 ft are focused N of 27N between 39W and 46W. To the W of this
area of swell, seas are 4 to 6 ft, with even lower seas in and
around the Bahamas.
For the forecast,the weak cold front will reach from 31N64W to
the Straits of Florida by Tue morning, and from 31N53W to the
central Bahamas by Wed morning. A strong cold front will move off
the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed night, reach from near 31N70W
to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become
stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high pressure builds
across the area in its wake. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds and building seas to around 15 ft are expected north and
northeast of the Bahamas Fri and Fri night.