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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system. The low is forecast to move to the
northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico,
possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday. This
system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing
the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding
across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey
could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force
winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today
for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
southwestern Louisiana.  Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across
the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure.  Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic.  Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days.  Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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