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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


800 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas.
This system has become less organized since yesterday, with only
minimal associated shower activity, and the chances for development
during the next 2 days have decreased.  Overall, environmental
conditions are not expected to be as conducive for development of
this system as anticipated earlier this week.  However, upper-level
winds could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early
next week when the system is expected to be near the Florida Keys or
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to
cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba through tomorrow.  This system could produce gusty
winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during
the next day or two. Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys
should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible
that some impacts, such as heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur
beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Blake

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