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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Wed Sep 18 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low
pressure around 350 miles west-southwest of Kauai. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development through today as the system moves toward the north
northwest. By late tonight or Thursday, chances for development drop
off significantly as the low interacts with another disturbance
approaching from the northwest. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the
next several days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure, located about 700 miles west of Kauai, remain
disorganized. This system is expected to slowly move north-northeast
into unfavorable environmental conditions later today. By late
tonight or Thursday, chances for development drop off significantly
as the low interacts with another disturbance approaching from the
southeast. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An elongated area of low pressure lies just under 700 miles south of
Hilo, Hawaii. Slow development is possible during the next several
days while the area slowly moves northwestward, though the
environmental conditions are only marginally favorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster TS




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