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Tropical Weather Outlook Text


200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

1. A weak area of low pressure is located between the northeastern
coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas.  The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours, but
remains disorganized and is located mainly to the east and southeast
of the low.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable
for significant development during the next day or so while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.  However,
environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development early next week when the system approaches the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause
flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and
over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend.  Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and
will likely spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida
Keys over the weekend.  Interests elsewhere in Florida and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak area of
disturbed weather.  Surface pressures in this area are high, and
significant development of this system is not expected before it
reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.  However, regardless of
tropical cyclone development, this disturbance could produce
rainfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas
during the next couple of days.  For additional information, please
see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Brennan

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