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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Guatemala, southeastern 
Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 
The wave is expected to move over the Bay of Campeche later today, 
and an area of low pressure is forecast to develop while interacting 
with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form 
during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves 
slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of shower and 
thunderstorm activity. A more well-defined area of low pressure may 
form within this region during the next few days. Some slow 
development of this system is possible while the disturbance 
meanders through the early part of next week, then begins to move 
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the 
middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart