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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Franklin, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, located off the coast of North 
Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Jose, located several hundred miles 
east of Bermuda.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an elongated area of low pressure located just 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A short-lived tropical depression 
or tropical storm is expected to form later tonight or on Friday 
while the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing small 
bursts of showers and thunderstorms to the south of its center. This 
system has a short window to become a tropical depression during the 
next day or so while it drifts northeastward or eastward, before 
upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa 
this weekend.  Environmental conditions could support some gradual 
development of this system through the middle part of next week 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and 
central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi