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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023
Tropical Storm Jova continues to become better organized this
morning, with deep convection increasing near the low-level center.
Earlier AMSR microwave imagery showed a mid-level core developing,
with a sharp curved band on the southern side of system. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and objective ADT intensity estimates
from UW-CIMMS have increased for this advisory to T3.5/45 kt. Given
the improved structure and satellite estimates, the intensity for
this advisory has increased to 45 kt.
The initial motion is westward or 280/9 kt. Jova is forecast to
continue on a general west to west-northwest motion the next
several days along the southern side of a ridge extending westward
over the southwestern United States. The track guidance is in
fairly good agreement, with the main difference being the forward
speed of Jova in the short-term. The NHC forecast is close to the
previous advisory, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.
Jova is in a favorable environment to continue strengthening with
relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures
and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are all well above normal. The
intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification, with Jova
becoming a hurricane on Wednesday. The intensity forecast lies at
the higher end of the guidance envelope given the favorable
parameters for RI, closest to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the
forecast period, the system is forecast to move over a sharp SST
gradient with much cooler ocean temperatures inducing a weakening
trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 13.1N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.4N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 14.1N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 16.2N 115.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 21.3N 124.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 23.6N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
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