ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 900 AM MDT Tue Sep 05 2023 Tropical Storm Jova continues to become better organized this morning, with deep convection increasing near the low-level center. Earlier AMSR microwave imagery showed a mid-level core developing, with a sharp curved band on the southern side of system. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and objective ADT intensity estimates from UW-CIMMS have increased for this advisory to T3.5/45 kt. Given the improved structure and satellite estimates, the intensity for this advisory has increased to 45 kt. The initial motion is westward or 280/9 kt. Jova is forecast to continue on a general west to west-northwest motion the next several days along the southern side of a ridge extending westward over the southwestern United States. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, with the main difference being the forward speed of Jova in the short-term. The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory, and lies near the corrected consensus aids. Jova is in a favorable environment to continue strengthening with relatively low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and moist mid-level RH values. The various model Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are all well above normal. The intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification, with Jova becoming a hurricane on Wednesday. The intensity forecast lies at the higher end of the guidance envelope given the favorable parameters for RI, closest to the SHIPS guidance. Later in the forecast period, the system is forecast to move over a sharp SST gradient with much cooler ocean temperatures inducing a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 13.1N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 13.4N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 14.1N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.2N 115.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 21.3N 124.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 23.6N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:14 UTC