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Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023
Irwin continues to be a disheveled tropical cyclone. Infrared
satellite imagery has shown a recent burst of convection just north
of the estimated center and data from a microwave satellite pass at
0927 UTC indicates there is a curved band around the eastern portion
of the semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite estimates
range from 32-39 kt and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt as a
blend of these measurements.
The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. The
cyclone is expected to turn westward in the low-level flow shortly
and continue in this direction with an increase in forward speed for
the next several days. The most recent forecast has shifted
slightly north of the previous prediction and lies near the various
consensus aids.
Irwin is crossing over a cooling gradient of sea surface
temperatures and into a dry and stable environment. Simulated
satellite imagery from global models suggests that the cyclone
should be devoid of convection within 48 hours. Only minor
adjustments have been made to the intensity forecast and it now
shows Irwin becoming a remnant low in a couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 18.0N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.7N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.6N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0000Z 18.7N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 18.8N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 19.1N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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