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Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102023
500 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023
 
Irwin continues to be a disheveled tropical cyclone. Infrared 
satellite imagery has shown a recent burst of convection just north 
of the estimated center and data from a microwave satellite pass at 
0927 UTC indicates there is a curved band around the eastern portion 
of the semicircle.  Objective and subjective satellite estimates 
range from 32-39 kt and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt as a 
blend of these measurements.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt.  The 
cyclone is expected to turn westward in the low-level flow shortly 
and continue in this direction with an increase in forward speed for 
the next several days.  The most recent forecast has shifted 
slightly north of the previous prediction and lies near the various 
consensus aids.

Irwin is crossing over a cooling gradient of sea surface 
temperatures and into a dry and stable environment.  Simulated 
satellite imagery from global models suggests that the cyclone 
should be devoid of convection within 48 hours.  Only minor 
adjustments have been made to the intensity forecast and it now 
shows Irwin becoming a remnant low in a couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 18.0N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 18.7N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 18.6N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 18.6N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  31/0000Z 18.7N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 18.8N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 19.1N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z 19.0N 142.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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