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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023
Dora remains far to the southeast of Hawaii this morning. Its
westward track will have it pass far south of Hawaii, posing no
direct threat to the islands. Satellite presentation shows
that Dora has undergone some minor changes in the last several
hours, but remains a compact and symmetric hurricane. The
subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAT and JTWC all came in at
6.0, and the objective estimates ranged from 110 to 120 kt. These
estimates, combined with a 1644Z SSMI pass showing a closed eye
wall, supports our initial intensity of 115 kt.
The model track guidance remains tightly clustered, particularly
through day 4, continuing high confidence in Dora's expected path.
The forecast track makes little change from the previous advisory
during this time. Beyond day 4, the forecast track has been nudged
a bit south to bring the track closer to the latest guidance. The
forecast track maintains a westward movement for the next several
days, before gaining latitude and then crossing the dateline
between days 4 and 5.
Minor fluctuations in intensity are still expected with Dora for
the next 36 hours or so, with Dora's environment remaining largely
unchanged. Dora is currently over 27 C waters, but is expected to
move over slightly warmer waters (28-29 C) around day 3. Shear in
the immediate area remains negligible in the short term, but on the
projected path, shows signs of increasing around day 4. The bigger
question relates to the amount of dry air that will be ingested into
Dora. At the moment, Dora sits just south of a very dry air mass.
The deterministic GFS and ECMWF models suggest mid level drier air
will be ingested into the system in the coming days, and will
likely contribute to the gradual weakening of Dora.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 12.3N 150.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 12.0N 156.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 12.1N 160.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 13.0N 167.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 13.7N 171.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 15.6N 178.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 17.5N 175.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Birchard/M Ballard
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