ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 30 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 07 2023 Dora remains far to the southeast of Hawaii this morning. Its westward track will have it pass far south of Hawaii, posing no direct threat to the islands. Satellite presentation shows that Dora has undergone some minor changes in the last several hours, but remains a compact and symmetric hurricane. The subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO, SAT and JTWC all came in at 6.0, and the objective estimates ranged from 110 to 120 kt. These estimates, combined with a 1644Z SSMI pass showing a closed eye wall, supports our initial intensity of 115 kt. The model track guidance remains tightly clustered, particularly through day 4, continuing high confidence in Dora's expected path. The forecast track makes little change from the previous advisory during this time. Beyond day 4, the forecast track has been nudged a bit south to bring the track closer to the latest guidance. The forecast track maintains a westward movement for the next several days, before gaining latitude and then crossing the dateline between days 4 and 5. Minor fluctuations in intensity are still expected with Dora for the next 36 hours or so, with Dora's environment remaining largely unchanged. Dora is currently over 27 C waters, but is expected to move over slightly warmer waters (28-29 C) around day 3. Shear in the immediate area remains negligible in the short term, but on the projected path, shows signs of increasing around day 4. The bigger question relates to the amount of dry air that will be ingested into Dora. At the moment, Dora sits just south of a very dry air mass. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF models suggest mid level drier air will be ingested into the system in the coming days, and will likely contribute to the gradual weakening of Dora. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.3N 150.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 12.0N 156.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 12.1N 160.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 13.0N 167.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 13.7N 171.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 15.6N 178.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 17.5N 175.5E 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard/M Ballard NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:03 UTC