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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023
This evening's satellite presentation consists of a rapidly
deteriorating cloud pattern and the depression's less-defined
and exposed surface circulation; effects of belligerent
west-southwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt
and is supported by the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB. A slow spin-down is anticipated as it continues its trek
over cooler water and moves into a stable, drier air mass as
evidenced by the stratocumulus marine layer ahead of the system.
Most of the guidance indicates organized, deep convection will
cease tomorrow, and the NHC forecast specifies the cyclone
degenerating to a remnant low at that time.
The depression's initial motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level ridge anchored to
the north and northwest of the depression should result in a
west-northwestward to westward track during the next couple of
days. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the
south of the previous one and follows the latest HFIP Corrected
consensus and TVCE multi-model solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 16.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 17.0N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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