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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042023
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2023
 
This evening's satellite presentation consists of a rapidly
deteriorating cloud pattern and the depression's less-defined
and exposed surface circulation; effects of belligerent 
west-southwesterly shear.  The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt 
and is supported by the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB 
and SAB.  A slow spin-down is anticipated as it continues its trek 
over cooler water and moves into a stable, drier air mass as 
evidenced by the stratocumulus marine layer ahead of the system.  
Most of the guidance indicates organized, deep convection will 
cease tomorrow, and the NHC forecast specifies the cyclone 
degenerating to a remnant low at that time.
 
The depression's initial motion is estimated to be 
west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.  A mid-level ridge anchored to 
the north and northwest of the depression should result in a 
west-northwestward to westward track during the next couple of 
days.  The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the 
south of the previous one and follows the latest HFIP Corrected 
consensus and TVCE multi-model solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 16.1N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 16.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 17.0N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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