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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023
Adrian continues to gradually weaken. Satellite imagery shows the
center remains decoupled from the region of active convection,
located in the northwest quadrant. The center is now to the
northwest of Clarion Island, where a Mexican Navy automated weather
station shows 20-kt sustained winds. The Dvorak Data T-number from
TAFB is lower at 2.5/35 kt, and the estimates from the CIMSS
ADT and SAB also support a weaker intensity. With this information,
the initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt for this advisory.
Adrian is moving west-northwestward at approximately 305/7 kt. The
tropical cyclone is expected to turn more westward as it becomes
more influenced from the low-level subtropical ridge. The system is
predicted to enter a region of even drier air with decreasing
sea-surface temperatures, which should contribute to continued
weakening for the remainder of the forecast. Adrian is forecast to
transition to a remnant low by tomorrow night with total dissipation
expected in the early part of next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 19.2N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 20.1N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1200Z 20.3N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 20.2N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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