ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Adrian continues to gradually weaken. Satellite imagery shows the center remains decoupled from the region of active convection, located in the northwest quadrant. The center is now to the northwest of Clarion Island, where a Mexican Navy automated weather station shows 20-kt sustained winds. The Dvorak Data T-number from TAFB is lower at 2.5/35 kt, and the estimates from the CIMSS ADT and SAB also support a weaker intensity. With this information, the initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt for this advisory. Adrian is moving west-northwestward at approximately 305/7 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to turn more westward as it becomes more influenced from the low-level subtropical ridge. The system is predicted to enter a region of even drier air with decreasing sea-surface temperatures, which should contribute to continued weakening for the remainder of the forecast. Adrian is forecast to transition to a remnant low by tomorrow night with total dissipation expected in the early part of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.2N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.1N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1200Z 20.3N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 20.2N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:54 UTC