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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2022
Newton has had deep, persistent convection through the morning
with cloud top temperatures are below -75 degrees C. Microwave
imagery shows a small inner core, but not with the same definition
as yesterday. A blend of the satellite Dvorak estimates supports
an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.
Gradual weakening is expected while the storm moves into a drier,
more stable environment to the north. Statistical model guidance
also indicates vertical wind shear to increase in a day or so which
is likely to contribute to additional weakening. Eventual
transition into a remnant low is forecast within about three days,
and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction.
Newton is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt along the
southwest edge of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico,
although there is some uncertainty in the initial position since
the low-level center has tucked up underneath a burst of convection.
The center is estimated to be slightly north of the previous track
forecast, and therefore the short-term model track guidance has
shifted northward as well. Beyond 24 hours, the official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and within the
small spread of the multi-model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 18.4N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 18.8N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 19.7N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 18.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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