ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022
The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring a few hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
has developed organized deep convection and a well-defined center.
Therefore, the system is now being classified as a tropical
depression and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based
on recent ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should be
noted that the depression is quite large with its cloud field
extending several hundred miles across.
The depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days as the system remains steered by the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. After that time, the weakening
system should turn to the west within the low-level flow. The
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near
the middle of the guidance envelope.
The environmental conditions appear favorable for intensification
during the next 36 to 48 hours, however, given the sprawling nature
of the depression only slow strengthening seems likely during that
time. Beyond a couple of days, the system is expected to track over
much cooler SSTs and into a dry and stable airmass. These
conditions should cause the system to decay into a remnant low in
about 60 h with continued weakening forecast thereafter. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Although the center of the system is forecast to remain a couple of
hundred miles off the Baja California coast, outer rainbands
and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern
and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple
of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 18.9N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.9N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 21.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 23.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 24.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 25.4N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 25.8N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 25.6N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 24.9N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NNNN