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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring a few hundred 
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula 
has developed organized deep convection and a well-defined center.  
Therefore, the system is now being classified as a tropical 
depression and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based 
on recent ASCAT data and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  It should be 
noted that the depression is quite large with its cloud field 
extending several hundred miles across. 

The depression is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this motion 
with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 
couple of days as the system remains steered by the western 
periphery of a subtropical ridge.  After that time, the weakening 
system should turn to the west within the low-level flow.  The 
models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near 
the middle of the guidance envelope. 

The environmental conditions appear favorable for intensification 
during the next 36 to 48 hours, however, given the sprawling nature 
of the depression only slow strengthening seems likely during that 
time.  Beyond a couple of days, the system is expected to track over 
much cooler SSTs and into a dry and stable airmass.  These 
conditions should cause the system to decay into a remnant low in 
about 60 h with continued weakening forecast thereafter.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Although the center of the system is forecast to remain a couple of 
hundred miles off the Baja California coast, outer rainbands 
and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern 
and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple 
of days.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 18.9N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.9N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 21.4N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 23.1N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 24.5N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 25.4N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/1800Z 25.8N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 25.6N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 24.9N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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