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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
Howard continues to weaken as it moves over cool 25 degree C waters.
Satellite images indicate that most of the deep convection is
confined to the north of the center with thunderstorm activity
dissipating on the south side due to dry air that is entraining into
that portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is nudged
downward to 60 kt, making Howard a tropical storm again, based on a
blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates.
Steady weakening is forecast to continue as Howard tracks over
progressively cooler water and into a very dry environment. These
factors should cause the storm to degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone in about 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near
the IVCN and HCCA models.
Howard continues to move to the northwest at 9 kt. A gradual turn to
the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to
the west on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the north of the previous one, due to the more northward initial
position.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 23.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.6N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 24.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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