ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 Howard continues to weaken as it moves over cool 25 degree C waters. Satellite images indicate that most of the deep convection is confined to the north of the center with thunderstorm activity dissipating on the south side due to dry air that is entraining into that portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 60 kt, making Howard a tropical storm again, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Steady weakening is forecast to continue as Howard tracks over progressively cooler water and into a very dry environment. These factors should cause the storm to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA models. Howard continues to move to the northwest at 9 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to the west on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, due to the more northward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.6N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 24.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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