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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022
The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air appear
to be limiting the current potential for intensification of the
tropical depression. The low-level center is once again exposed to
the west of a burst of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest the system is still at 30
kt and the initial intensity remains unchanged.
The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has yet to occur.
However, global models are insistent the shear should relax soon.
If this does happen, the tropical depression could gradually
strengthen during a brief window of conducive atmospheric and
oceanic environmental conditions over the next 48 hours. The
cyclone is then expected to weaken after that time when it
encounters sea surface temperatures of 26 degree C and a more stable
and drier airmass. The peak intensity of the official forecast has
been decreased slightly and it now shows the depression becoming a
remnant low by day 5.
The system is moving west-northwest at 300/13 kt. A mid-level ridge
to the northeast is expected to steer the depression northwestward
at a slightly decreased forward speed for the next few days. The
depression is then expected to turn westward as it weakens and
follows the low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous official forecast and the model consensus
aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 16.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 21.1N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 22.0N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 23.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
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