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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022
 
The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air appear 
to be limiting the current potential for intensification of the 
tropical depression.  The low-level center is once again exposed to 
the west of a burst of deep convection.  Subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB both suggest the system is still at 30 
kt and the initial intensity remains unchanged.

The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has yet to occur.  
However, global models are insistent the shear should relax soon.  
If this does happen, the tropical depression could gradually 
strengthen during a brief window of conducive atmospheric and 
oceanic environmental conditions over the next 48 hours.  The 
cyclone is then expected to weaken after that time when it 
encounters sea surface temperatures of 26 degree C and a more stable 
and drier airmass. The peak intensity of the official forecast has 
been decreased slightly and it now shows the depression becoming a 
remnant low by day 5.  

The system is moving west-northwest at 300/13 kt.  A mid-level ridge 
to the northeast is expected to steer the depression northwestward 
at a slightly decreased forward speed for the next few days.  The 
depression is then expected to turn westward as it weakens and 
follows the low-level flow.  The updated NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the previous official forecast and the model consensus 
aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 16.3N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 17.3N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 18.7N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 21.1N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 22.0N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 23.7N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown
 
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