ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022
Bursts of deep convection have been developing near, and just east
of the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. The
low-level circulation continues to try to outrun these bursts due to
ongoing moderate westerly vertical wind shear. Overall, the system
does not look much better organized than it did this afternoon, and
the latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the system
remains a 30 kt tropical depression.
The westerly shear is forecast to decrease overnight and remain weak
for the remainder of the cyclone's existence. The path of
the depression should keep it over warm waters and within a moist
thermodynamic environment for the next couple of days. Therefore
strengthening is expected during that time. By 72 h, the cyclone is
expected to cross the 26 degrees C isotherm and encounter a much
drier and more stable airmass. These factors should cause the
system to weaken and become devoid of deep convection by midweek.
Model guidance continues to trend lower with their respective peak
intensities for this system. Thus, the NHC forecast peak intensity
has been nudged downward as well, but remains slightly higher than
the various intensity consensus solutions.
The depression continues its trek to the northwest, or 305/12 kt to
the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This ridge should keep the
cyclone on this general heading for the next few days. As the
cyclone weakens and loses its convection midweek, a turn to the
west-northwest in the large scale low-level flow is anticipated. The
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one
and remains near the multi-model track consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 15.7N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.2N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 23.2N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 23.7N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
NNNN