Tropical Depression NINE-E (Text)

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 06 2022
Bursts of deep convection have been developing near, and just east
of the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. The
low-level circulation continues to try to outrun these bursts due to
ongoing moderate westerly vertical wind shear. Overall, the system
does not look much better organized than it did this afternoon, and
the latest Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the system
remains a 30 kt tropical depression.
The westerly shear is forecast to decrease overnight and remain weak 
for the remainder of the cyclone's existence. The path of 
the depression should keep it over warm waters and within a moist 
thermodynamic environment for the next couple of days. Therefore 
strengthening is expected during that time. By 72 h, the cyclone is 
expected to cross the 26 degrees C isotherm and encounter a much 
drier and more stable airmass. These factors should cause the 
system to weaken and become devoid of deep convection by midweek. 
Model guidance continues to trend lower with their respective peak 
intensities for this system. Thus, the NHC forecast peak intensity 
has been nudged downward as well, but remains slightly higher than 
the various intensity consensus solutions.
The depression continues its trek to the northwest, or 305/12 kt to 
the southwest of a mid-level ridge. This ridge should keep the 
cyclone on this general heading for the next few days. As the 
cyclone weakens and loses its convection midweek, a turn to the 
west-northwest in the large scale low-level flow is anticipated. The 
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one 
and remains near the multi-model track consensus guidance.
INIT  07/0300Z 15.7N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.4N 114.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 21.3N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 22.2N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 23.2N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 23.7N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
Forecaster Latto

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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:08 UTC