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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Small bursts of convection continue to develop near the exposed
low-level center of Georgette this evening. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS still
estimate winds of 30-33 kt in this system, and the initial
intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Global
models predict the moderate northeasterly to east-northeasterly
vertical wind shear should persist over Georgette for the next few
days. This and the relatively dry environment around the depression
should prevent any future restrengthening. The NHC intensity
forecast still predicts Georgette to become a post-tropical cyclone
in a few days, however given the poor organization of the
convection, this could happen sooner.
Georgette has been meandering west-northwestward at 4 kt. The
system is expected to turn north-northeastward overnight into a
weakness in the subtropical ridge located to the north of the
cyclone. In about two days, the ridge is expected to build back in
and turn Georgette to the west with an increase in forward speed.
The official track forecast is shifted slightly west of the previous
advisory prediction, mostly due to the westward shift in the initial
position.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 13.5N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.1N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 16.8N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 17.1N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 17.0N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 16.3N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Berg
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