ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022 Small bursts of convection continue to develop near the exposed low-level center of Georgette this evening. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS still estimate winds of 30-33 kt in this system, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Global models predict the moderate northeasterly to east-northeasterly vertical wind shear should persist over Georgette for the next few days. This and the relatively dry environment around the depression should prevent any future restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast still predicts Georgette to become a post-tropical cyclone in a few days, however given the poor organization of the convection, this could happen sooner. Georgette has been meandering west-northwestward at 4 kt. The system is expected to turn north-northeastward overnight into a weakness in the subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. In about two days, the ridge is expected to build back in and turn Georgette to the west with an increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is shifted slightly west of the previous advisory prediction, mostly due to the westward shift in the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 13.5N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 14.1N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 15.0N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 16.8N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 17.1N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 17.0N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 16.3N 137.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Berg NNNN
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