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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
Georgette continues to be affected by northeasterly vertical shear
that is displacing much of its deep convection to the southwest of
the estimated center. Based on a blend of subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, the advisory
intensity remains at 45 kt.
The tropical cyclone has continued on its west-southwestward track
and is moving at about 255/9 kt. A mid-level ridge just to the
west of Hurricane Frank should continue to steer Georgette on a
west-southwestward to westward course for the next day or so.
Thereafter, the system should become situated in a region of weak
steering currents between the ridge and broad southwesterly flow to
the south and southwest of Frank. This will likely cause Georgette
to move slowly and erratically during the next 2-3 days. By 72
hours, the weakening cyclone is expected to begin moving
northeastward within the southwesterly low- to mid-level flow.
Most of the track guidance has shifted westward in comparison to the
earlier model runs, and the official forecast is somewhat west of
the previous NHC prediction beyond 36 hours, but not quite as far
west as the latest model consensus.
East-northeasterly shear is forecast to prevail over Georgette
during the next few days, and the low- to mid-level environment is
expected to remain rather dry. This, along with an increasing lack
of low-level inflow due to the influence of Franks's circulation,
should result in gradual weakening. The official forecast is
similar to the previous one and closely follows the latest HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 14.2N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.9N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.5N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.4N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.6N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.8N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 14.4N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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