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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Georgette continues to be affected by northeasterly vertical shear 
that is displacing much of its deep convection to the southwest of 
the estimated center.  Based on a blend of subjective and objective 
Dvorak estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, the advisory 
intensity remains at 45 kt.

The tropical cyclone has continued on its west-southwestward track 
and is moving at about 255/9 kt.  A mid-level ridge just to the 
west of Hurricane Frank should continue to steer Georgette on a 
west-southwestward to westward course for the next day or so.  
Thereafter, the system should become situated in a region of weak 
steering currents between the ridge and broad southwesterly flow to 
the south and southwest of Frank.  This will likely cause Georgette 
to move slowly and erratically during the next 2-3 days.  By 72 
hours, the weakening cyclone is expected to begin moving 
northeastward within the southwesterly low- to mid-level flow.  
Most of the track guidance has shifted westward in comparison to the 
earlier model runs, and the official forecast is somewhat west of 
the previous NHC prediction beyond 36 hours, but not quite as far 
west as the latest model consensus.  

East-northeasterly shear is forecast to prevail over Georgette 
during the next few days, and the low- to mid-level environment is 
expected to remain rather dry.  This, along with an increasing lack 
of low-level inflow due to the influence of Franks's circulation, 
should result in gradual weakening.  The official forecast is 
similar to the previous one and closely follows the latest HFIP 
Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, intensity guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 14.2N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 13.9N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 13.5N 128.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 13.4N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 13.6N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 13.8N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 14.4N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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