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Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Frank continues to produce a small patch of moderate convection near
its center, but cloud tops of -50 degrees Celsius appear more
related to remnant cirrus rather than the convection itself.
Assuming continued weakening of the circulation since the afternoon
ASCAT passes, Frank's initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, which
is also a blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.
Frank's large circulation will continue to spin down over waters of
20-22 degrees Celsius over the next couple of days, but the NHC
intensity forecast is near the higher end of the guidance through
that period, favoring the slower decay shown by the GFS global model
fields. Frank should lose its remaining convection soon and become
post-tropical by 24 hours, and all global models indicate the
remnant low should open up into a trough in 3 or 4 days about
300 n mi west of the California coast.
Frank slowed down a little bit today, and is moving toward the
northwest (310/8 kt). Although it's decaying, Frank is essentially
expected to recurve around strong mid-level ridging over the
southwestern United States and ahead of a deep-layer trough well
west of California. There is good model consensus on this
scenario, and only a slight westward adjustment was required on the
new forecast after 24 hours based on the lastest track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 23.4N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 24.5N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 26.2N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/1200Z 28.1N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 30.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z 32.0N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 33.8N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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